Cascade Autopsy #74: BTC, 2026-11-04

hunterkiller.io · All numbers from our multi-venue tape · Graded, not estimated

Summary

Source: trading.db/liquidation_events; independent re-read confirms headline numbers.

Top Symbols by USD Liquidated

Timeline (UTC)

What the Magnet Field Showed BEFORE the Cascade

Snapshot: 2026-11-04T15:03:08Z, 1 minutes before cascade start. Anchor price at snapshot: $79,474.73

Model calibration (per-symbol): - precision@N (OOS) = 44.8% (n=358, CI 95% lower bound: 39.6%) | walk-forward window: 720h Calibrated: 2026-11-05T22:48:28Z

What this means: The predictive-liquidation model places levels in the top N ranked zones that matched real liquidation clusters in 45% of OOS evaluation windows (n=358, CI 95% lower bound: 39.6%). This is the measured zone-accuracy, not a forecast of whether a cascade will start.

Level assessment: 11 REACHED / 12 MISSED (both shown; misses are never hidden)

Caveats: These are predicted liquidation cluster ZONES from our model, not leaked order book data, not single prices but band estimates. REACHED = actual cascade price range came within 0.5% of the predicted level. MISSED levels are shown at equal weight: both reaches and misses are counted, never cherry-picked. The calibration figures (with n= and 95% CI lower bound) in the Model calibration section above are measured on past levels from the same model; past hits do not promise future hits.

Venue Breakdown

Our tape covers multiple venues independently: cross-venue coverage is the moat.

Venues active: binance, bitfinex, bitget, bybit, deribit, dydx, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx

(Per-venue USD breakdown available via the live API at /market/cascade_autopsy. The tape covers all venues simultaneously, so the cascade was multi-exchange.)

Contagion Propagation

Historical co-fire correlation: NOT causal evidence. Shared macro shocks produce simultaneous liquidations across symbols. Minimum 3 co-fire samples required to appear.

Interpretation: symbols with shock_beta > 1.0 historically moved MORE than the source symbol during similar cascade events. This is a historical observation (n shown per pair), not a forecast of future co-movement.

Accuracy Metadata

• Magnet model: OOS precision@N = 44.8% (n=358, CI 95% lower bound: 39.6%) | walk-forward window: 720h | calibrated: 2026-11-05T22:48:28Z
• Tape: 6,662 raw liquidation events from binance, bitfinex, bitget, bybit, deribit, dydx, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx
• Capture span: ~52 days of rolling multi-venue liq tape
• Independent verify: headline USD/count confirmed by independent DB re-read (PASS)

Your Take

Is your bag on this list? BTCUSDT, ETHUSDT, SOLUSDT were the symbols hit hardest in this cascade. Were you watching the short level at $81,322.52? It graded REACHED on our tape. Reply with the symbol and level you had on - reaches and misses both count here, and telling us where the model was wrong makes the next autopsy better.

Share this autopsy: hunterkiller.io/go/liq?c=autopsy-share&r=TG-CHANNEL

Autopsy published directly by the hunterkiller.io automated pipeline. NEVER auto-published: owner-approved before any post goes live (v1 policy). Data: 6,662 events from our multi-venue tape (real captured data, not model-estimated). Hit rates are measured on past levels from the same model; past hits do not promise future hits.