Hunter KillerCreate free accountCascade Autopsy #68: BTC, 2026-10-29
hunterkiller.io · All numbers from our multi-venue tape · Graded, not estimated
Summary
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Date/Time | 2026-10-29 20:40 UTC |
| Dominant Symbol | BTCUSDT |
| Total Liquidated | $350.4M |
| Duration | 10m 0s |
| Raw Events | 24,060 (independent re-read) |
| Venues | binance, bitfinex, bitget, bybit, dydx, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx |
| Direction | predominantly LONG liquidations (98% of events), price fell |
Source: trading.db/liquidation_events; independent re-read confirms headline numbers.
Top Symbols by USD Liquidated
| Rank | Symbol | USD | Events | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BTCUSDT | $125.1M | 3944 | 35.7% |
| 2 | ETHUSDT | $107.7M | 3340 | 30.7% |
| 3 | SOLUSDT | $32.1M | 2448 | 9.2% |
| 4 | XRPUSDT | $12.8M | 1469 | 3.7% |
| 5 | DOGEUSDT | $4.8M | 402 | 1.4% |
Timeline (UTC)
| Minute | Events | USD | Top Symbol | Venues |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20:39 | 360 | $4.5M | SOLUSDT | binance, bitget, bybit, gateio, hyperliquid, okx |
| 20:40 | 554 | $4.4M | SOLUSDT | binance, bitget, bybit, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx |
| 20:41 | 3210 | $51.5M | ETHUSDT | binance, bitfinex, bitget, bybit, dydx, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx |
| 20:42 | 5174 | $82.8M | ETHUSDT | binance, bitfinex, bitget, bybit, dydx, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx |
| 20:43 | 4456 | $74.8M | BTCUSDT | binance, bitfinex, bitget, bybit, dydx, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx |
| 20:44 | 121 | $548,804 | ZECUSDT | binance, bitget, bybit, gateio, hyperliquid, okx |
| 20:45 | 2086 | $22.1M | BTCUSDT | binance, bitfinex, bitget, bybit, dydx, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx |
| 20:46 | 584 | $3.7M | SOLUSDT | binance, bitget, bybit, dydx, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx |
| 20:47 | 7568 | $106.8M | BTCUSDT | binance, bitfinex, bitget, bybit, dydx, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx |
| 20:48 | 217 | $3.2M | ETHUSDT | binance, bitget, bybit, gateio, okx |
| 20:49 | 109 | $770,203 | BTCUSDT | binance, bitget, bybit, gateio, okx |
| 20:50 | 227 | $1.5M | BTCUSDT | binance, bitget, bybit, dydx, gateio, hyperliquid, okx |
| 20:51 | 27 | $475,164 | ETHUSDT | binance, bitget, bybit, gateio, okx |
What the Magnet Field Showed BEFORE the Cascade
Snapshot: 2026-10-29T20:38:08Z, 2 minutes before cascade start. Anchor price at snapshot: $79,830.00
Model calibration (per-symbol): - precision@N (OOS) = 77.3% (n=355, CI 95% lower bound: 72.5%) | walk-forward window: 720h Calibrated: 2026-10-29T20:56:38Z
What this means: The predictive-liquidation model places levels in the top N ranked zones that matched real liquidation clusters in 77% of OOS evaluation windows (n=355, CI 95% lower bound: 72.5%). This is the measured zone-accuracy, not a forecast of whether a cascade will start.
Level assessment: 14 REACHED / 8 MISSED (both shown; misses are never hidden)
| Leverage | Side | Predicted Price | Status | Mass (relative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| None× | long | $78,452.93 | REACHED | 216639116 |
| None× | long | $79,171.40 | REACHED | 195833635 |
| 75× | long | $79,989.66 | REACHED | 190428483 |
| 75× | long | $79,670.34 | REACHED | 188637369 |
| None× | long | $79,650.38 | REACHED | 188036877 |
| None× | long | $79,410.89 | REACHED | 173779356 |
| None× | short | $79,889.87 | REACHED | 162776598 |
| None× | short | $80,129.36 | REACHED | 162544329 |
| 100× | long | $79,989.66 | REACHED | 124825210 |
| 100× | long | $79,670.34 | REACHED | 115885323 |
| None× | long | $78,213.44 | REACHED | 102985963 |
| None× | long | $77,734.46 | REACHED | 62352337 |
| 50× | long | $79,351.02 | REACHED | 37818121 |
| 25× | long | $77,754.42 | REACHED | 10432534 |
| None× | short | $81,686.05 | MISSED | 298669106 |
| None× | short | $81,207.07 | MISSED | 197248571 |
| None× | short | $80,488.60 | MISSED | 166458936 |
| None× | short | $80,728.09 | MISSED | 130560077 |
| 75× | short | $81,266.94 | MISSED | 101780821 |
| 100× | short | $80,947.62 | MISSED | 67420560 |
| 50× | short | $81,905.58 | MISSED | 19681776 |
| 25× | short | $83,502.18 | MISSED | 5227608 |
Caveats: These are predicted liquidation cluster ZONES from our walk-forward calibrated model, not leaked order-book data, not single prices but band estimates. REACHED = actual cascade price range came within 0.5% of the predicted level. MISSED levels are shown at equal weight: both reaches and misses are counted, never cherry-picked. The measured calibration (with n= and 95% CI lower bound) is stated in the Model calibration section above.
Venue Breakdown
Our tape covers multiple venues independently: cross-venue coverage is the moat.
Venues active: binance, bitfinex, bitget, bybit, dydx, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx
(Per-venue USD breakdown available via the live API at /market/cascade_autopsy. The tape covers all venues simultaneously, so the cascade was multi-exchange.)
Contagion Propagation
Historical co-fire correlation: NOT causal evidence. Shared macro shocks produce simultaneous liquidations across symbols. Minimum 3 co-fire samples required to appear.
| Responder | Co-fire n | Shock Beta | Same-bar Move | Next-bar Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LINKUSDT | 7 | 1.98 | -1.12% | 0.07% |
| SUIUSDT | 7 | 1.97 | -1.27% | 0.17% |
| ADAUSDT | 7 | 1.96 | -1.37% | 0.17% |
| AVAXUSDT | 7 | 1.83 | -1.20% | 0.13% |
| BNBUSDT | 7 | 1.72 | -1.12% | 0.23% |
Interpretation: symbols with shock_beta > 1.0 historically moved MORE than the source symbol during similar cascade events. This is a historical observation (n shown per pair), not a forecast of future co-movement.
Accuracy Metadata
- Magnet model: OOS precision@N = 77.3% (n=355, CI 95% lower bound: 72.5%) | walk-forward window: 720h | calibrated: 2026-10-29T20:56:38Z
- Tape: 24,060 raw liquidation events from binance, bitfinex, bitget, bybit, dydx, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx
- Capture span: ~52 days of rolling multi-venue liq tape
- Independent verify: headline USD/count confirmed by independent DB re-read (PASS)
Your Take
Is your bag on this list? BTCUSDT, ETHUSDT, SOLUSDT were the symbols hit hardest in this cascade. Were you watching the long level at $78,452.93? It graded REACHED on our tape. Reply with the symbol and level you had on - reaches and misses both count here, and telling us where the model was wrong makes the next autopsy better.
Share this autopsy: hunterkiller.io/go/liq?c=autopsy-share&r=TG-CHANNEL
Autopsy published directly by the hunterkiller.io automated pipeline. NEVER auto-published: owner-approved before any post goes live (v1 policy). Data: 24,060 events from our multi-venue tape (real captured data, not model-estimated). Accuracy model is walk-forward calibrated with precision@N and OOS score.