Hunter KillerCreate free accountCascade Autopsy #64: ETH, 2026-10-24
hunterkiller.io · All numbers from our multi-venue tape · Graded, not estimated
Summary
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Date/Time | 2026-10-24 15:11 UTC |
| Dominant Symbol | ETHUSDT |
| Total Liquidated | $58.8M |
| Duration | 5m 0s |
| Raw Events | 3,385 (independent re-read) |
| Venues | binance, bitfinex, bybit, deribit, dydx, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx |
| Direction | predominantly LONG liquidations (98% of events), price fell |
Source: trading.db/liquidation_events; independent re-read confirms headline numbers.
Top Symbols by USD Liquidated
| Rank | Symbol | USD | Events | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ETHUSDT | $29.8M | 1017 | 50.7% |
| 2 | BTCUSDT | $21.6M | 893 | 36.7% |
| 3 | SOLUSDT | $2.3M | 250 | 4.0% |
| 4 | XRPUSDT | $590,113 | 101 | 1.0% |
| 5 | DOGEUSDT | $535,499 | 170 | 0.9% |
Timeline (UTC)
| Minute | Events | USD | Top Symbol | Venues |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:10 | 22 | $43,032 | BTCUSDT | binance, bybit, gateio |
| 15:11 | 9 | $57,233 | ETHUSDT | binance, okx |
| 15:12 | 7 | $9,196 | ETHUSDT | binance, deribit, gateio |
| 15:13 | 27 | $62,042 | ETHUSDT | binance, bybit, deribit, gateio, okx |
| 15:14 | 32 | $119,678 | BTCUSDT | binance, bybit, deribit, gateio |
| 15:15 | 377 | $14.9M | ETHUSDT | binance, bitfinex, bybit, deribit, dydx, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx |
| 15:16 | 4415 | $65.0M | BTCUSDT | binance, bitfinex, bybit, deribit, dydx, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx |
| 15:17 | 49 | $248,351 | XAUUSDT | binance, bybit, gateio, okx |
What the Magnet Field Showed BEFORE the Cascade
Snapshot: 2026-10-24T15:08:08Z, 3 minutes before cascade start. Anchor price at snapshot: $2,323.54
Model calibration (per-symbol): - precision@N (OOS) = 79.9% (n=352, CI 95% lower bound: 75.3%) | walk-forward window: 720h Calibrated: 2026-10-24T16:08:22Z
What this means: The predictive-liquidation model places levels in the top N ranked zones that matched real liquidation clusters in 80% of OOS evaluation windows (n=352, CI 95% lower bound: 75.3%). This is the measured zone-accuracy, not a forecast of whether a cascade will start.
Level assessment: 19 REACHED / 6 MISSED (both shown; misses are never hidden)
| Leverage | Side | Predicted Price | Status | Mass (relative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| None× | long | $2,304.37 | REACHED | 132073376 |
| None× | short | $2,339.22 | REACHED | 130788285 |
| None× | long | $2,314.83 | REACHED | 128209689 |
| None× | short | $2,332.25 | REACHED | 113922818 |
| 25× | long | $2,300.30 | REACHED | 51869910 |
| None× | long | $2,290.43 | REACHED | 41622989 |
| 50× | long | $2,346.78 | REACHED | 33966855 |
| 50× | long | $2,318.89 | REACHED | 24552415 |
| None× | long | $2,279.97 | REACHED | 20896118 |
| 75× | long | $2,365.36 | REACHED | 11717302 |
| 25× | short | $2,467.60 | REACHED | 11473507 |
| 10× | short | $2,607.01 | REACHED | 9084480 |
| 50× | short | $2,421.13 | REACHED | 7765815 |
| 75× | long | $2,318.89 | REACHED | 5159033 |
| 100× | long | $2,365.36 | REACHED | 5021512 |
| 75× | short | $2,402.54 | REACHED | 2757741 |
| None× | short | $2,377.56 | REACHED | 1808057 |
| 100× | long | $2,318.89 | REACHED | 1576847 |
| 100× | short | $2,393.25 | REACHED | 1187600 |
| 10× | long | $2,151.60 | MISSED | 46037559 |
| 5× | long | $1,919.24 | MISSED | 20701295 |
| 3× | long | $1,603.24 | MISSED | 12253347 |
| None× | long | $2,266.03 | MISSED | 3823235 |
| 5× | short | $2,848.66 | MISSED | 3315731 |
| 3× | short | $3,164.66 | MISSED | 1495898 |
Caveats: These are predicted liquidation cluster ZONES from our walk-forward calibrated model, not leaked order-book data, not single prices but band estimates. REACHED = actual cascade price range came within 0.5% of the predicted level. MISSED levels are shown at equal weight: both reaches and misses are counted, never cherry-picked. The measured calibration (with n= and 95% CI lower bound) is stated in the Model calibration section above.
Venue Breakdown
Our tape covers multiple venues independently: cross-venue coverage is the moat.
Venues active: binance, bitfinex, bybit, deribit, dydx, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx
(Per-venue USD breakdown available via the live API at /market/cascade_autopsy. The tape covers all venues simultaneously, so the cascade was multi-exchange.)
Contagion Propagation
Historical co-fire correlation: NOT causal evidence. Shared macro shocks produce simultaneous liquidations across symbols. Minimum 3 co-fire samples required to appear.
| Responder | Co-fire n | Shock Beta | Same-bar Move | Next-bar Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARBUSDT | 7 | 1.38 | -1.01% | -0.45% |
| OPUSDT | 7 | 1.06 | -0.77% | -0.06% |
| SOLUSDT | 7 | 0.78 | -0.55% | -0.12% |
| LINKUSDT | 7 | 0.65 | -0.91% | -0.09% |
Interpretation: symbols with shock_beta > 1.0 historically moved MORE than the source symbol during similar cascade events. This is a historical observation (n shown per pair), not a forecast of future co-movement.
Accuracy Metadata
- Magnet model: OOS precision@N = 79.9% (n=352, CI 95% lower bound: 75.3%) | walk-forward window: 720h | calibrated: 2026-10-24T16:08:22Z
- Tape: 3,385 raw liquidation events from binance, bitfinex, bybit, deribit, dydx, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx
- Capture span: ~52 days of rolling multi-venue liq tape
- Independent verify: headline USD/count confirmed by independent DB re-read (PASS)
Your Take
Is your bag on this list? ETHUSDT, BTCUSDT, SOLUSDT were the symbols hit hardest in this cascade. Were you watching the long level at $2,304.37? It graded REACHED on our tape. Reply with the symbol and level you had on - reaches and misses both count here, and telling us where the model was wrong makes the next autopsy better.
Share this autopsy: hunterkiller.io/go/liq?c=autopsy-share&r=TG-CHANNEL
Autopsy published directly by the hunterkiller.io automated pipeline. NEVER auto-published: owner-approved before any post goes live (v1 policy). Data: 3,385 events from our multi-venue tape (real captured data, not model-estimated). Accuracy model is walk-forward calibrated with precision@N and OOS score.