Hunter KillerCreate free accountCascade Autopsy #52: ETH — 2026-10-08
hunterkiller.io · All numbers from our multi-venue tape · Graded, not estimated
Summary
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Date/Time | 2026-10-08 15:32 UTC |
| Dominant Symbol | ETHUSDT |
| Total Liquidated | $77.2M |
| Duration | 5m 0s |
| Raw Events | 4,976 (independent re-read) |
| Venues | binance, bitfinex, bybit, dydx, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx |
| Direction | predominantly LONG liquidations (71% of events) — price fell |
Source: trading.db/liquidation_events — independent re-read confirms headline numbers.
Top Symbols by USD Liquidated
| Rank | Symbol | USD | Events | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ETHUSDT | $39.6M | 1418 | 51.2% |
| 2 | BTCUSDT | $19.4M | 845 | 25.1% |
| 3 | SOLUSDT | $5.3M | 444 | 6.8% |
| 4 | XRPUSDT | $1.9M | 192 | 2.5% |
| 5 | DOGEUSDT | $1.7M | 269 | 2.2% |
Timeline (UTC)
| Minute | Events | USD | Top Symbol | Venues |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:31 | 13 | $45,753 | ETHUSDT | binance, bybit, gateio, okx |
| 15:32 | 260 | $6.1M | BTCUSDT | binance, bybit, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx |
| 15:33 | 20 | $60,668 | ETHUSDT | binance, bybit, gateio, okx |
| 15:34 | 977 | $9.5M | BTCUSDT | binance, bitfinex, bybit, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx |
| 15:35 | 3825 | $66.1M | ETHUSDT | binance, bitfinex, bybit, dydx, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx |
| 15:36 | 63 | $751,749 | BTCUSDT | binance, bybit, gateio, hyperliquid, okx |
| 15:37 | 317 | $4.9M | BTCUSDT | binance, bitfinex, bybit, dydx, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx |
| 15:38 | 293 | $3.0M | BTCUSDT | binance, bitfinex, bybit, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx |
What the Magnet Field Showed BEFORE the Cascade
Snapshot: 2026-10-08T15:28:15Z — 4 minutes before cascade start. Anchor price at snapshot: $2,470.78
Model calibration (per-symbol): - precision@N (OOS) = unavailable (n=unavailable) | walk-forward window: 720h Calibrated: 2026-10-08T15:24:20Z
OOS precision is unavailable for this calibration window; no accuracy percentage is reported.
Level assessment: 15 REACHED / 4 MISSED (both shown — misses are never hidden)
| Leverage | Side | Predicted Price | Status | Mass (relative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| None× | long | $2,450.40 | REACHED | 139882100 |
| None× | short | $2,487.46 | REACHED | 138521030 |
| None× | long | $2,461.51 | REACHED | 135789976 |
| None× | short | $2,480.05 | REACHED | 120658406 |
| 75× | long | $2,535.02 | REACHED | 115911928 |
| 50× | long | $2,525.14 | REACHED | 47578378 |
| 100× | long | $2,544.90 | REACHED | 45515493 |
| None× | long | $2,435.57 | REACHED | 44083913 |
| None× | long | $2,424.45 | REACHED | 22131583 |
| 75× | long | $2,465.84 | REACHED | 14511644 |
| 50× | long | $2,465.84 | REACHED | 13981984 |
| 100× | short | $2,574.55 | REACHED | 13151388 |
| 25× | long | $2,465.84 | REACHED | 7555085 |
| 100× | long | $2,465.84 | REACHED | 3436745 |
| None× | short | $2,528.23 | REACHED | 1914957 |
| 75× | short | $2,584.44 | MISSED | 33253366 |
| 50× | short | $2,594.32 | MISSED | 13514259 |
| None× | long | $2,409.63 | MISSED | 4049281 |
| 25× | short | $2,653.62 | MISSED | 2055750 |
Caveats: These are predicted liquidation cluster ZONES from our walk-forward calibrated model — not leaked order-book data, not single prices but band estimates. REACHED = actual cascade price range came within 0.5% of the predicted level. MISSED levels are shown at equal weight — both reaches and misses are counted, never cherry-picked. The measured calibration (with n= and 95% CI lower bound) is stated in the Model calibration section above.
Venue Breakdown
Our tape covers multiple venues independently — cross-venue coverage is the moat.
Venues active: binance, bitfinex, bybit, dydx, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx
(Per-venue USD breakdown available via the live API at /market/cascade_autopsy. The tape covers all venues simultaneously — the cascade was multi-exchange.)
Contagion Propagation
Historical co-fire correlation — NOT causal evidence. Shared macro shocks produce simultaneous liquidations across symbols. Minimum 3 co-fire samples required to appear.
| Responder | Co-fire n | Shock Beta | Same-bar Move | Next-bar Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARBUSDT | 7 | 2.68 | -2.60% | -0.59% |
| OPUSDT | 7 | 2.28 | -1.79% | -0.54% |
| LINKUSDT | 7 | 1.24 | -1.50% | -0.34% |
| SOLUSDT | 7 | 0.89 | -1.06% | -0.23% |
Interpretation: symbols with shock_beta > 1.0 historically moved MORE than the source symbol during similar cascade events. This is a historical observation (n shown per pair), not a forecast of future co-movement.
Accuracy Metadata
- Magnet model: OOS precision@N = unavailable (n=unavailable) | walk-forward window: 720h | calibrated: 2026-10-08T15:24:20Z
- Tape: 4,976 raw liquidation events from binance, bitfinex, bybit, dydx, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx
- Capture span: ~52 days of rolling multi-venue liq tape
- Independent verify: headline USD/count confirmed by independent DB re-read (PASS)
Your Take
Is your bag on this list? ETHUSDT, BTCUSDT, SOLUSDT were the symbols hit hardest in this cascade. Were you watching the long level at $2,450.40? It graded REACHED on our tape. Reply with the symbol and level you had on - reaches and misses both count here, and telling us where the model was wrong makes the next autopsy better.
Share this autopsy: hunterkiller.io/go/liq?c=autopsy-share&r=TG-CHANNEL
Autopsy published directly by the hunterkiller.io automated pipeline. Data: 4,976 events from our multi-venue tape (real captured data, not model-estimated). Accuracy model is walk-forward calibrated with precision@N and OOS score.