Cascade Autopsy #34: BTC, 2026-09-18

hunterkiller.io · All numbers from our multi-venue tape · Graded, not estimated

Summary

Source: trading.db/liquidation_events, independent re-read confirms headline numbers.

Top Symbols by USD Liquidated

Timeline (UTC)

What the Magnet Field Showed BEFORE the Cascade

Snapshot: 2026-09-18T13:33:07Z, 4 minutes before cascade start. Anchor price at snapshot: $78,225.57

Model calibration (per-symbol): - precision@N (OOS) = 50.6% (n=358, CI 95% lower bound: 45.4%) | walk-forward window: 720h Calibrated: 2026-09-18T13:39:41Z

What this means: The predictive-liquidation model places levels in the top N ranked zones that matched real liquidation clusters in 51% of OOS evaluation windows (n=358, CI 95% lower bound: 45.4%). This is the measured zone-accuracy, not a forecast of whether a cascade will start.

Level assessment: 21 REACHED / 7 MISSED (both shown; misses are never hidden)

Caveats: These are predicted liquidation cluster ZONES from our walk-forward calibrated model, not leaked order-book data, not single prices but band estimates. REACHED = actual cascade price range came within 0.5% of the predicted level. MISSED levels are shown at equal weight, both reaches and misses are counted, never cherry-picked. The measured calibration (with n= and 95% CI lower bound) is stated in the Model calibration section above.

Venue Breakdown

Our tape covers multiple venues independently, cross-venue coverage is the moat.

Venues active: binance, bitfinex, bybit, dydx, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx

(Per-venue USD breakdown available via the live API at /market/cascade_autopsy. The tape covers all venues simultaneously, the cascade was multi-exchange.)

Contagion Propagation

Historical co-fire correlation, NOT causal evidence. Shared macro shocks produce simultaneous liquidations across symbols. Minimum 3 co-fire samples required to appear.

No contagion pairs found for BTCUSDT with n ≥ 3 co-fire samples in our correlation engine. This may mean insufficient history for this symbol, or no statistically reliable co-movement observed.

Accuracy Metadata

• Magnet model: OOS precision@N = 50.6% (n=358, CI 95% lower bound: 45.4%) | walk-forward window: 720h | calibrated: 2026-09-18T13:39:41Z
• Tape: 10,067 raw liquidation events from binance, bitfinex, bybit, dydx, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx
• Capture span: ~52 days of rolling multi-venue liq tape
• Independent verify: headline USD/count confirmed by independent DB re-read (PASS)

Your Take

Is your bag on this list? BTCUSDT, ETHUSDT, XRPUSDT were the symbols hit hardest in this cascade. Were you watching the short level at $80,044.31? It graded REACHED on our tape. Reply with the symbol and level you had on - reaches and misses both count here, and telling us where the model was wrong makes the next autopsy better.

Share this autopsy: hunterkiller.io/go/liq?c=autopsy-share&r=TG-CHANNEL

Autopsy published directly by the hunterkiller.io automated pipeline. Data: 10,067 events from our multi-venue tape (real captured data, not model-estimated). Accuracy model is walk-forward calibrated with precision@N and OOS score.

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