Hunter KillerCreate free accountCascade Autopsy #23: ETH, 2026-09-04
hunterkiller.io · All numbers from our multi-venue tape · Graded, not estimated
Summary
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Date/Time | 2026-09-04 12:28 UTC |
| Dominant Symbol | ETHUSDT |
| Total Liquidated | $151.1M |
| Duration | 4m 59s |
| Raw Events | 7,372 (independent re-read) |
| Venues | binance, bitfinex, bitmex, bybit, dydx, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx |
| Direction | predominantly LONG liquidations (67% of events), price fell |
Source: trading.db/liquidation_events, independent re-read confirms headline numbers.
Top Symbols by USD Liquidated
| Rank | Symbol | USD | Events | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ETHUSDT | $55.9M | 1389 | 37.0% |
| 2 | BTCUSDT | $45.7M | 1154 | 30.2% |
| 3 | XRPUSDT | $15.5M | 597 | 10.2% |
| 4 | SOLUSDT | $10.6M | 753 | 7.0% |
| 5 | XAUUSDT | $3.1M | 186 | 2.1% |
Timeline (UTC)
| Minute | Events | USD | Top Symbol | Venues |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:27 | 1 | $74 | PONSUSDT | bybit |
| 12:28 | 27 | $95,445 | 1000PEPEUSDT | binance, bybit, okx |
| 12:29 | 77 | $377,950 | ZECUSDT | binance, bybit, gateio, okx |
| 12:30 | 3715 | $55.6M | ETHUSDT | binance, bitfinex, bitmex, bybit, dydx, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx |
| 12:31 | 2363 | $81.7M | BTCUSDT | binance, bitfinex, bitmex, bybit, dydx, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx |
| 12:32 | 1168 | $13.3M | ETHUSDT | binance, bybit, dydx, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx |
| 12:33 | 58 | $341,651 | BTCUSDT | binance, bybit, gateio, okx |
| 12:34 | 85 | $236,708 | ZECUSDT | binance, bybit, gateio, okx |
What the Magnet Field Showed BEFORE the Cascade
Snapshot: 2026-09-04T12:28:09Z, 0 minutes before cascade start. Anchor price at snapshot: $2,523.35
Model calibration (per-symbol): - precision@N (OOS) = 91.4% (n=348, CI 95% lower bound: 88.0%) | walk-forward window: 720h Calibrated: 2026-09-04T12:41:25Z
What this means: The predictive-liquidation model places levels in the top N ranked zones that matched real liquidation clusters in 91% of OOS evaluation windows (n=348, CI 95% lower bound: 88.0%). This is the measured zone-accuracy, not a forecast of whether a cascade will start.
Level assessment: 16 REACHED / 4 MISSED (both shown; misses are never hidden)
| Leverage | Side | Predicted Price | Status | Mass (relative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| None× | long | $2,502.53 | REACHED | 141483167 |
| None× | short | $2,540.38 | REACHED | 140106518 |
| None× | long | $2,513.89 | REACHED | 137344205 |
| None× | short | $2,532.81 | REACHED | 122039441 |
| 50× | short | $2,538.49 | REACHED | 45742802 |
| 75× | short | $2,518.30 | REACHED | 44731233 |
| None× | long | $2,487.39 | REACHED | 44588490 |
| 75× | short | $2,528.40 | REACHED | 44412072 |
| 50× | long | $2,467.84 | REACHED | 30245758 |
| 75× | long | $2,477.93 | REACHED | 29350925 |
| 25× | long | $2,417.37 | REACHED | 27380454 |
| 100× | short | $2,508.21 | REACHED | 22747570 |
| None× | long | $2,476.04 | REACHED | 22384897 |
| 100× | short | $2,528.40 | REACHED | 21850411 |
| 100× | long | $2,488.02 | REACHED | 14879343 |
| None× | long | $2,460.90 | REACHED | 4095628 |
| 25× | short | $2,588.96 | MISSED | 39754716 |
| None× | short | $2,582.02 | MISSED | 1936875 |
| 10× | short | $2,740.36 | MISSED | 1525088 |
| 10× | long | $2,265.97 | MISSED | 1187825 |
Caveats: These are predicted liquidation cluster ZONES from our walk-forward calibrated model, not leaked order-book data, not single prices but band estimates. REACHED = actual cascade price range came within 0.5% of the predicted level. MISSED levels are shown at equal weight, both reaches and misses are counted, never cherry-picked. The measured calibration (with n= and 95% CI lower bound) is stated in the Model calibration section above.
Venue Breakdown
Our tape covers multiple venues independently, cross-venue coverage is the moat.
Venues active: binance, bitfinex, bitmex, bybit, dydx, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx
(Per-venue USD breakdown available via the live API at /market/cascade_autopsy. The tape covers all venues simultaneously, the cascade was multi-exchange.)
Contagion Propagation
Historical co-fire correlation, NOT causal evidence. Shared macro shocks produce simultaneous liquidations across symbols. Minimum 3 co-fire samples required to appear.
| Responder | Co-fire n | Shock Beta | Same-bar Move | Next-bar Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OPUSDT | 5 | 1.19 | 0.94% | 0.22% |
| LINKUSDT | 5 | 1.10 | 0.27% | -0.47% |
| SOLUSDT | 5 | 0.99 | 0.49% | -0.19% |
| ARBUSDT | 5 | 0.96 | -0.69% | 0.01% |
Interpretation: symbols with shock_beta > 1.0 historically moved MORE than the source symbol during similar cascade events. This is a historical observation (n shown per pair), not a forecast of future co-movement.
Accuracy Metadata
- Magnet model: OOS precision@N = 91.4% (n=348, CI 95% lower bound: 88.0%) | walk-forward window: 720h | calibrated: 2026-09-04T12:41:25Z
- Tape: 7,372 raw liquidation events from binance, bitfinex, bitmex, bybit, dydx, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx
- Capture span: ~52 days of rolling multi-venue liq tape
- Independent verify: headline USD/count confirmed by independent DB re-read (PASS)
Your Take
Is your bag on this list? ETHUSDT, BTCUSDT, XRPUSDT were the symbols hit hardest in this cascade. Were you watching the long level at $2,502.53? It graded REACHED on our tape. Reply with the symbol and level you had on - reaches and misses both count here, and telling us where the model was wrong makes the next autopsy better.
Share this autopsy: hunterkiller.io/go/liq?c=autopsy-share&r=TG-CHANNEL
Autopsy published directly by the hunterkiller.io automated pipeline. Data: 7,372 events from our multi-venue tape (real captured data, not model-estimated). Accuracy model is walk-forward calibrated with precision@N and OOS score.
marketing_assets/live/autocard-card-autopsy-2026-09-04t1228-eth.png