Hunter KillerCreate free accountCascade Autopsy #21: BTC, 2026-09-03
hunterkiller.io · All numbers from our multi-venue tape · Graded, not estimated
Summary
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Date/Time | 2026-09-03 15:55 UTC |
| Dominant Symbol | BTCUSDT |
| Total Liquidated | $201.3M |
| Duration | 5m 0s |
| Raw Events | 1,349 (independent re-read) |
| Venues | binance, bitfinex, bybit, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx |
| Direction | predominantly SHORT liquidations (78% of events), price rose |
Source: trading.db/liquidation_events, independent re-read confirms headline numbers.
Top Symbols by USD Liquidated
| Rank | Symbol | USD | Events | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BTCUSDT | $190.7M | 252 | 94.7% |
| 2 | ETHUSDT | $6.8M | 274 | 3.4% |
| 3 | ZECUSDT | $2.7M | 349 | 1.3% |
| 4 | DOGEUSDT | $281,548 | 145 | 0.1% |
| 5 | BNBUSDT | $231,707 | 52 | 0.1% |
Timeline (UTC)
| Minute | Events | USD | Top Symbol | Venues |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:54 | 5 | $5,890 | BTCUSDT | gateio, okx |
| 15:55 | 158 | $1.0M | BTCUSDT | binance, bybit, gateio, hyperliquid, okx |
| 15:56 | 23 | $49,186 | 1000PEPEUSDT | binance, bitfinex, bybit, gateio, hyperliquid, okx |
| 15:57 | 255 | $3.4M | BTCUSDT | binance, bybit, gateio, hyperliquid, okx |
| 15:58 | 763 | $190.9M | BTCUSDT | binance, bitfinex, bybit, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx |
| 15:59 | 166 | $2.4M | BTCUSDT | binance, bybit, gateio, hyperliquid, okx |
| 16:00 | 133 | $4.6M | ETHUSDT | binance, bybit, gateio, hyperliquid, okx |
| 16:01 | 65 | $213,218 | ADAUSDT | binance, bybit, gateio, okx |
What the Magnet Field Showed BEFORE the Cascade
Snapshot: 2026-09-03T15:53:10Z, 2 minutes before cascade start. Anchor price at snapshot: $81,168.24
Model calibration (per-symbol): - precision@N (OOS) = 32.2% (n=351, CI 95% lower bound: 27.5%) | walk-forward window: 720h Calibrated: 2026-09-03T15:55:23Z
What this means: The predictive-liquidation model places levels in the top N ranked zones that matched real liquidation clusters in 32% of OOS evaluation windows (n=351, CI 95% lower bound: 27.5%). This is the measured zone-accuracy, not a forecast of whether a cascade will start.
Level assessment: 17 REACHED / 13 MISSED (both shown; misses are never hidden)
| Leverage | Side | Predicted Price | Status | Mass (relative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| None× | long | $80,498.60 | REACHED | 248324872 |
| None× | long | $80,133.34 | REACHED | 191969326 |
| None× | long | $79,768.09 | REACHED | 148827923 |
| None× | short | $81,959.63 | REACHED | 131234263 |
| None× | short | $81,716.13 | REACHED | 125609523 |
| None× | long | $80,985.61 | REACHED | 125321172 |
| None× | long | $79,524.58 | REACHED | 118331612 |
| None× | short | $81,350.87 | REACHED | 114610552 |
| None× | long | $79,281.08 | REACHED | 90754747 |
| 25× | short | $80,356.56 | REACHED | 48825878 |
| 25× | short | $81,330.58 | REACHED | 43674942 |
| 50× | short | $79,057.87 | REACHED | 33215931 |
| 50× | short | $81,330.58 | REACHED | 12556313 |
| 75× | short | $78,408.52 | REACHED | 11730300 |
| 100× | short | $78,083.85 | REACHED | 5038798 |
| 75× | short | $81,330.58 | REACHED | 2715907 |
| 100× | short | $81,330.58 | REACHED | 879245 |
| None× | short | $82,324.89 | MISSED | 101431422 |
| None× | short | $82,811.90 | MISSED | 65441329 |
| 25× | long | $75,161.79 | MISSED | 58018717 |
| 10× | long | $70,291.70 | MISSED | 51580262 |
| 10× | short | $85,226.65 | MISSED | 38554714 |
| 50× | long | $76,460.48 | MISSED | 37837108 |
| None× | short | $83,298.91 | MISSED | 30286471 |
| 5× | long | $62,499.54 | MISSED | 23165177 |
| 5× | short | $93,018.80 | MISSED | 14128996 |
| 3× | long | $52,110.01 | MISSED | 13837814 |
| 75× | long | $77,109.83 | MISSED | 13203964 |
| 3× | short | $103,408.34 | MISSED | 6354082 |
| 100× | long | $77,434.50 | MISSED | 5637517 |
Caveats: These are predicted liquidation cluster ZONES from our walk-forward calibrated model, not leaked order-book data, not single prices but band estimates. REACHED = actual cascade price range came within 0.5% of the predicted level. MISSED levels are shown at equal weight, both reaches and misses are counted, never cherry-picked. The measured calibration (with n= and 95% CI lower bound) is stated in the Model calibration section above.
Venue Breakdown
Our tape covers multiple venues independently, cross-venue coverage is the moat.
Venues active: binance, bitfinex, bybit, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx
(Per-venue USD breakdown available via the live API at /market/cascade_autopsy. The tape covers all venues simultaneously, the cascade was multi-exchange.)
Contagion Propagation
Historical co-fire correlation, NOT causal evidence. Shared macro shocks produce simultaneous liquidations across symbols. Minimum 3 co-fire samples required to appear.
| Responder | Co-fire n | Shock Beta | Same-bar Move | Next-bar Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DOGEUSDT | 6 | 1.95 | 1.08% | 0.06% |
| ADAUSDT | 6 | 1.67 | 0.68% | 0.34% |
| XRPUSDT | 6 | 1.64 | 0.81% | 0.07% |
| SOLUSDT | 6 | 1.37 | 0.56% | -0.27% |
| LINKUSDT | 6 | 1.26 | 0.61% | -0.20% |
Interpretation: symbols with shock_beta > 1.0 historically moved MORE than the source symbol during similar cascade events. This is a historical observation (n shown per pair), not a forecast of future co-movement.
Accuracy Metadata
- Magnet model: OOS precision@N = 32.2% (n=351, CI 95% lower bound: 27.5%) | walk-forward window: 720h | calibrated: 2026-09-03T15:55:23Z
- Tape: 1,349 raw liquidation events from binance, bitfinex, bybit, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx
- Capture span: ~52 days of rolling multi-venue liq tape
- Independent verify: headline USD/count confirmed by independent DB re-read (PASS)
Your Take
Is your bag on this list? BTCUSDT, ETHUSDT, ZECUSDT were the symbols hit hardest in this cascade. Were you watching the long level at $80,498.60? It graded REACHED on our tape. Reply with the symbol and level you had on - reaches and misses both count here, and telling us where the model was wrong makes the next autopsy better.
Share this autopsy: hunterkiller.io/go/liq?c=autopsy-share&r=TG-CHANNEL
Autopsy published directly by the hunterkiller.io automated pipeline. Data: 1,349 events from our multi-venue tape (real captured data, not model-estimated). Accuracy model is walk-forward calibrated with precision@N and OOS score.
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