Hunter KillerCreate free accountCascade Autopsy #11: BTC, 2026-08-21
hunterkiller.io · All numbers from our multi-venue tape · Graded, not estimated
Summary
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Date/Time | 2026-08-21 00:16 UTC |
| Dominant Symbol | BTCUSDT |
| Total Liquidated | $216.1M |
| Duration | 4m 53s |
| Raw Events | 1,973 (independent re-read) |
| Venues | binance, bitfinex, bitmex, bybit, dydx, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx |
| Direction | predominantly SHORT liquidations (70% of events), price rose |
Source: trading.db/liquidation_events, independent re-read confirms headline numbers.
Top Symbols by USD Liquidated
| Rank | Symbol | USD | Events | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BTCUSDT | $208.6M | 1296 | 96.5% |
| 2 | ETHUSDT | $5.7M | 260 | 2.6% |
| 3 | SOLUSDT | $1.1M | 161 | 0.5% |
| 4 | XAUUSDT | $380,669 | 12 | 0.2% |
| 5 | SNDKUSDT | $94,789 | 14 | 0.0% |
Timeline (UTC)
| Minute | Events | USD | Top Symbol | Venues |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:16 | 3 | $913 | BTCUSDT | binance, gateio |
| 00:17 | 3 | $8,529 | SNDKUSDT | binance |
| 00:18 | 1885 | $214.7M | BTCUSDT | binance, bitfinex, bitmex, bybit, dydx, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx |
| 00:19 | 68 | $1.3M | BTCUSDT | binance, bitfinex, bybit, gateio, hyperliquid, okx |
| 00:20 | 13 | $138,812 | BTCUSDT | binance, bybit, gateio, okx |
| 00:21 | 23 | $38,927 | SOLUSDT | binance, bybit, gateio, hyperliquid, okx |
| 00:22 | 22 | $89,628 | SOLUSDT | binance, bybit, gateio, hyperliquid, okx |
What the Magnet Field Showed BEFORE the Cascade
Snapshot: 2026-08-21T00:13:07Z, 3 minutes before cascade start. Anchor price at snapshot: $73,345.49
Model calibration (per-symbol): - precision@N (OOS) = 38.5% (n=358, CI 95% lower bound: 33.7%) | walk-forward window: 720h Calibrated: 2026-08-21T01:09:43Z
What this means: The predictive-liquidation model places levels in the top N ranked zones that matched real liquidation clusters in 38% of OOS evaluation windows (n=358, CI 95% lower bound: 33.7%). This is the measured zone-accuracy, not a forecast of whether a cascade will start.
Level assessment: 11 REACHED / 4 MISSED (both shown; misses are never hidden)
| Leverage | Side | Predicted Price | Status | Mass (relative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25× | short | $73,785.56 | REACHED | 89979400 |
| 25× | long | $68,798.07 | REACHED | 49277355 |
| 75× | short | $72,025.27 | REACHED | 36131021 |
| 75× | short | $73,492.18 | REACHED | 31013606 |
| 50× | short | $72,318.65 | REACHED | 22753820 |
| 50× | short | $73,492.18 | REACHED | 21182047 |
| 75× | long | $70,851.74 | REACHED | 18755029 |
| 100× | short | $71,731.89 | REACHED | 17456945 |
| 100× | short | $73,492.18 | REACHED | 14217537 |
| 50× | long | $70,264.98 | REACHED | 11980220 |
| 100× | long | $70,851.74 | REACHED | 8990684 |
| 10× | short | $78,186.29 | MISSED | 8794 |
| 10× | long | $64,690.72 | MISSED | 5428 |
| 5× | short | $85,227.46 | MISSED | 2807 |
| 5× | long | $57,356.17 | MISSED | 2126 |
Caveats: These are predicted liquidation cluster ZONES from our walk-forward calibrated model, not leaked order-book data, not single prices but band estimates. REACHED = actual cascade price range came within 0.5% of the predicted level. MISSED levels are shown at equal weight, both reaches and misses are counted, never cherry-picked. The measured calibration (with n= and 95% CI lower bound) is stated in the Model calibration section above.
Venue Breakdown
Our tape covers multiple venues independently, cross-venue coverage is the moat.
Venues active: binance, bitfinex, bitmex, bybit, dydx, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx
(Per-venue USD breakdown available via the live API at /market/cascade_autopsy. The tape covers all venues simultaneously, the cascade was multi-exchange.)
Contagion Propagation
Historical co-fire correlation, NOT causal evidence. Shared macro shocks produce simultaneous liquidations across symbols. Minimum 3 co-fire samples required to appear.
| Responder | Co-fire n | Shock Beta | Same-bar Move | Next-bar Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ETHUSDT | 7 | 0.88 | 2.70% | 1.15% |
| XRPUSDT | 7 | 0.69 | 2.19% | 0.49% |
| AVAXUSDT | 7 | 0.43 | 1.49% | 0.57% |
| BNBUSDT | 7 | 0.24 | 0.99% | 0.41% |
| SUIUSDT | 7 | 0.23 | 1.60% | 0.47% |
Interpretation: symbols with shock_beta > 1.0 historically moved MORE than the source symbol during similar cascade events. This is a historical observation (n shown per pair), not a forecast of future co-movement.
Accuracy Metadata
- Magnet model: OOS precision@N = 38.5% (n=358, CI 95% lower bound: 33.7%) | walk-forward window: 720h | calibrated: 2026-08-21T01:09:43Z
- Tape: 1,973 raw liquidation events from binance, bitfinex, bitmex, bybit, dydx, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx
- Capture span: ~52 days of rolling multi-venue liq tape
- Independent verify: headline USD/count confirmed by independent DB re-read (PASS)
Your Take
Is your bag on this list? BTCUSDT, ETHUSDT, SOLUSDT were the symbols hit hardest in this cascade. Were you watching the 25x short level at $73,785.56? It graded REACHED on our tape. Reply with the symbol and level you had on - reaches and misses both count here, and telling us where the model was wrong makes the next autopsy better.
Share this autopsy: hunterkiller.io/go/liq?c=autopsy-share&r=TG-CHANNEL
Autopsy published directly by the hunterkiller.io automated pipeline. Data: 1,973 events from our multi-venue tape (real captured data, not model-estimated). Accuracy model is walk-forward calibrated with precision@N and OOS score.
marketing_assets/live/autocard-card-autopsy-2026-08-21t0016-btc.png