Cascade Autopsy: BTC, 2026-11-05

2026-11-05T23:01:12Z → 23:12:32Z UTC · generated 2026-11-05T23:39:02Z · artifact 2026-11-05T2301-BTC

What happened

Total liquidated

$67.7M

Raw tape events

6,850

Duration

11m 20s

Venues

binance, bitget, bybit, dydx, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx

Dominant symbol

BTCUSDT

Direction

predominantly LONG liquidations (98% of events), price fell

Symbol	Liquidated	Events	Share
BTCUSDT	$30.1M	1,709	44.5%
ETHUSDT	$19.6M	1,129	28.9%
SOLUSDT	$4.7M	505	6.9%
XRPUSDT	$2.4M	432	3.6%
DOGEUSDT	$1.6M	450	2.3%

Timeline (UTC, minute by minute)

Minute	Events	Liquidated	Top symbol	Venues
23:00	6	$2,941	BTCUSDT	binance, bybit, gateio, okx
23:01	1,421	$18.5M	BTCUSDT	binance, bitget, bybit, dydx, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx
23:02	85	$1.2M	BTCUSDT	binance, bitget, bybit, gateio, hyperliquid, okx
23:03	42	$69,099	BTCUSDT	binance, bybit, gateio, okx
23:04	38	$64,035	AAVEUSDT	binance, bybit, gateio, hyperliquid, okx
23:05	303	$1.2M	ETHUSDT	binance, bitget, bybit, dydx, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx
23:07	2	$1,977	XRPUSDT	binance, hyperliquid
23:08	1,920	$18.4M	ETHUSDT	binance, bitget, bybit, dydx, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx
23:09	92	$555,653	SOXLUSDT	binance, bitget, bybit, gateio, okx
23:10	2,901	$27.5M	BTCUSDT	binance, bitget, bybit, dydx, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx
23:11	19	$52,342	BTCUSDT	binance, bitget, bybit, gateio, okx
23:12	38	$42,257	NVDAUSDT	binance, bybit, gateio, okx
23:13	22	$75,648	BTCUSDT	binance, bitget, bybit, gateio, okx

Venue breakdown

Venue	Liquidated	Events
binance	$27.0M	1,047
gateio	$10.2M	924
hyperliquid	$9.4M	1,352
okx	$8.8M	1,463
bybit	$7.7M	1,622
bitget	$4.3M	289
kraken_fut	$212,616	82
dydx	$93,005	71

Independent re-read of our own captured tape (verify: PASS). Cross-venue capture is the product moat.

What the map showed BEFORE the cascade

Levels snapshot published at 2026-11-05T22:58:08Z: 3 minutes before the cascade start. anchor price $75,705.18. Only snapshots strictly before the cascade start are eligible; nothing published after the start can appear here.

#	Leverage	Side	Predicted level	Status	Reached at (UTC)
#1	None×	long	$75,534.8433	REACHED	23:00:32
#2	None×	long	$75,307.7278	REACHED	23:00:32
#3	None×	short	$75,761.9589	REACHED	23:00:32
#4	75×	long	$75,553.7696	REACHED	23:00:32
#5	50×	long	$75,553.7696	REACHED	23:00:32
#6	100×	long	$75,553.7696	REACHED	23:00:32
#7	25×	long	$75,553.7696	REACHED	23:00:32
#8	None×	long	$75,080.6123	REACHED	23:01:34
#9	None×	short	$75,989.0744	REACHED	23:02:08
#10	25×	long	$76,159.4111	REACHED	23:02:12
#11	None×	short	$76,329.7477	REACHED	23:02:19
-	None×	short	$77,465.3254	MISSED	-
-	None×	long	$74,399.2656	MISSED	-
-	None×	short	$77,011.0944	MISSED	-
-	None×	short	$76,556.8633	MISSED	-
-	None×	long	$74,172.1501	MISSED	-
-	75×	long	$78,279.1561	MISSED	-
-	None×	long	$73,717.9190	MISSED	-
-	50×	long	$77,673.5147	MISSED	-
-	100×	long	$78,581.9768	MISSED	-
-	75×	short	$79,490.4390	MISSED	-
-	50×	short	$80,096.0804	MISSED	-
-	100×	short	$79,187.6183	MISSED	-
-	25×	short	$81,610.1840	MISSED	-

Event-level record for this one cascade: 11 of 24 published levels were reached. reach rate 45.8% · n=24 levels · Wilson 95% lower bound 27.9%. A level counts as REACHED when the cascade's traded price range ($74,873.52-$75,998.59) came within 0.5% of the published level. Misses are shown at equal weight, never hidden. One event is not a track record; the standing measured record follows below.

The measured record, as it stood before this cascade

As of 2026-11-05 22:48 UTC (the last calibration record before this cascade, n=15 day-clusters), the model's walk-forward calibration was below its own validation gate (the Wilson 95% lower bound on out-of-sample precision@N did not clear the published target). Per our honesty rules we do not quote the figure itself while it sits below gate, so only the status. The level-by-level record above stands on its own as the descriptive evidence for this event.

The map these autopsies came from is live

Every autopsy here is built from liquidation-level snapshots the product published in real time, before the event. The delayed map and the full measured track record are open without an account, every figure with its sample size and a Wilson 95% bound. Real time is Pro: $79/mo, Founding 50 from $39/mo. The free account needs no card.

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