Cascade Autopsy: ETH, 2026-11-05

2026-11-05T15:47:49Z → 15:57:42Z UTC · generated 2026-11-05T16:09:01Z · artifact 2026-11-05T1547-ETH

What happened

Total liquidated

$121.5M

Raw tape events

10,944

Duration

9m 53s

Venues

binance, bitfinex, bitget, bybit, dydx, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx

Dominant symbol

ETHUSDT

Direction

predominantly LONG liquidations (98% of events), price fell

Symbol	Liquidated	Events	Share
ETHUSDT	$41.5M	1,618	34.1%
BTCUSDT	$35.7M	1,706	29.4%
SOLUSDT	$7.0M	701	5.8%
SNDKUSDT	$6.0M	368	4.9%
SOXLUSDT	$5.4M	348	4.4%

Timeline (UTC, minute by minute)

Minute	Events	Liquidated	Top symbol	Venues
15:46	22	$52,259	MSTRUSDT	binance, bitget, bybit, gateio, okx
15:47	44	$217,335	ETHUSDT	binance, bitget, bybit, gateio, okx
15:48	9	$13,536	UNIUSDT	binance, bybit
15:49	39	$979,079	XRPUSDT	binance, bitget, bybit, gateio, okx
15:50	2,106	$27.8M	BTCUSDT	binance, bitget, bybit, dydx, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx
15:51	2,386	$20.5M	ETHUSDT	binance, bitget, bybit, dydx, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx
15:52	3,559	$48.5M	ETHUSDT	binance, bitfinex, bitget, bybit, dydx, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx
15:53	2,058	$16.9M	ETHUSDT	binance, bitget, bybit, dydx, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx
15:54	261	$1.7M	XAUUSDT	binance, bitget, bybit, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx
15:55	123	$632,116	ETHUSDT	binance, bitget, bybit, gateio, okx
15:56	366	$4.4M	BTCUSDT	binance, bitget, bybit, gateio, okx
15:57	35	$124,345	ETHUSDT	binance, bybit, gateio, okx
15:58	22	$116,737	SOXLUSDT	binance, bitget, bybit, okx

Venue breakdown

Venue	Liquidated	Events
binance	$69.0M	2,633
okx	$19.0M	2,758
gateio	$12.7M	1,289
bybit	$11.2M	2,600
bitget	$5.9M	720
hyperliquid	$3.0M	756
kraken_fut	$595,822	156
bitfinex	$19,808	7
dydx	$18,323	25

Independent re-read of our own captured tape (verify: PASS). Cross-venue capture is the product moat.

What the map showed BEFORE the cascade

Levels snapshot published at 2026-11-05T15:43:11Z: 4 minutes before the cascade start. anchor price $2,278.84. Only snapshots strictly before the cascade start are eligible; nothing published after the start can appear here.

#	Leverage	Side	Predicted level	Status	Reached at (UTC)
#1	None×	long	$2,260.0396	REACHED	15:46:49
#2	None×	long	$2,270.2944	REACHED	15:46:49
#3	50×	long	$2,274.2823	REACHED	15:46:49
#4	25×	long	$2,274.2823	REACHED	15:46:49
#5	75×	long	$2,274.2823	REACHED	15:46:49
#6	100×	long	$2,274.2823	REACHED	15:46:49
#7	None×	long	$2,246.3665	REACHED	15:50:01
#8	None×	long	$2,236.1118	REACHED	15:50:53
#9	None×	long	$2,222.4387	REACHED	15:53:05
-	None×	short	$2,294.2222	MISSED	-
-	None×	short	$2,287.3857	MISSED	-
-	75×	long	$2,392.7820	MISSED	-
-	50×	long	$2,374.5513	MISSED	-
-	100×	long	$2,401.8974	MISSED	-
-	25×	long	$2,328.9745	MISSED	-
-	None×	short	$2,331.8230	MISSED	-
-	75×	short	$2,438.3588	MISSED	-
-	50×	short	$2,447.4742	MISSED	-
-	100×	short	$2,429.2434	MISSED	-
-	25×	short	$2,502.1663	MISSED	-

Event-level record for this one cascade: 9 of 20 published levels were reached. reach rate 45.0% · n=20 levels · Wilson 95% lower bound 25.8%. A level counts as REACHED when the cascade's traded price range ($2,227.16-$2,275.13) came within 0.5% of the published level. Misses are shown at equal weight, never hidden. One event is not a track record; the standing measured record follows below.

The measured record, as it stood before this cascade

As of 2026-11-05 14:59 UTC (the last calibration record before this cascade, n=15 day-clusters), the model's walk-forward calibration was below its own validation gate (the Wilson 95% lower bound on out-of-sample precision@N did not clear the published target). Per our honesty rules we do not quote the figure itself while it sits below gate, so only the status. The level-by-level record above stands on its own as the descriptive evidence for this event.

The map these autopsies came from is live

Every autopsy here is built from liquidation-level snapshots the product published in real time, before the event. The delayed map and the full measured track record are open without an account, every figure with its sample size and a Wilson 95% bound. Real time is Pro: $79/mo, Founding 50 from $39/mo. The free account needs no card.

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