Cascade Autopsy: BTC, 2026-11-05

2026-11-05T15:22:29Z → 15:27:29Z UTC · generated 2026-11-05T15:39:01Z · artifact 2026-11-05T1522-BTC

What happened

Total liquidated

$66.4M

Raw tape events

5,707

Duration

5m 0s

Venues

binance, bitfinex, bitget, bybit, dydx, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx

Dominant symbol

BTCUSDT

Direction

predominantly LONG liquidations (97% of events), price fell

Symbol	Liquidated	Events	Share
BTCUSDT	$38.7M	1,366	58.3%
ETHUSDT	$11.0M	691	16.6%
SOXLUSDT	$3.2M	314	4.9%
SNDKUSDT	$2.9M	185	4.3%
SOLUSDT	$1.4M	257	2.1%

Timeline (UTC, minute by minute)

Minute	Events	Liquidated	Top symbol	Venues
15:21	111	$577,662	SOXLUSDT	binance, bitget, bybit, gateio, okx
15:22	292	$2.9M	ETHUSDT	binance, bitget, bybit, gateio, kraken_fut, okx
15:23	828	$6.1M	ETHUSDT	binance, bitget, bybit, dydx, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx
15:24	2,560	$20.8M	BTCUSDT	binance, bitget, bybit, dydx, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx
15:25	628	$8.2M	BTCUSDT	binance, bitfinex, bitget, bybit, gateio, hyperliquid, okx
15:26	609	$14.5M	BTCUSDT	binance, bitget, bybit, gateio, hyperliquid, okx
15:27	1,285	$21.0M	BTCUSDT	binance, bitfinex, bitget, bybit, dydx, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx
15:28	47	$646,871	ETHUSDT	binance, bitget, bybit, gateio, okx

Venue breakdown

Venue	Liquidated	Events
binance	$20.2M	1,391
gateio	$16.1M	574
okx	$13.3M	1,485
hyperliquid	$6.4M	455
bybit	$5.6M	1,384
bitget	$4.8M	388
dydx	$13,301	17
kraken_fut	$11,625	12
bitfinex	$2,169	1

Independent re-read of our own captured tape (verify: PASS). Cross-venue capture is the product moat.

What the map showed BEFORE the cascade

Levels snapshot published at 2026-11-05T15:18:07Z: 4 minutes before the cascade start. anchor price $77,366.12. Only snapshots strictly before the cascade start are eligible; nothing published after the start can appear here.

#	Leverage	Side	Predicted level	Status	Reached at (UTC)
#1	None×	long	$76,727.8495	REACHED	15:21:34
#2	None×	long	$77,192.0462	REACHED	15:21:34
#3	None×	long	$76,959.9479	REACHED	15:21:34
#4	50×	long	$77,211.3878	REACHED	15:21:34
#5	75×	long	$77,211.3878	REACHED	15:21:34
#6	25×	long	$77,211.3878	REACHED	15:21:34
#7	100×	long	$77,211.3878	REACHED	15:21:34
#8	None×	short	$77,424.1446	REACHED	15:21:36
#9	None×	long	$76,031.5544	REACHED	15:24:26
#10	None×	long	$75,799.4561	REACHED	15:25:43
-	None×	short	$79,164.8823	MISSED	-
-	75×	long	$79,687.1036	MISSED	-
-	None×	short	$78,700.6856	MISSED	-
-	None×	short	$78,004.3905	MISSED	-
-	None×	short	$77,656.2429	MISSED	-
-	50×	long	$79,068.1746	MISSED	-
-	None×	short	$78,236.4888	MISSED	-
-	100×	long	$79,996.5681	MISSED	-
-	None×	long	$75,335.2593	MISSED	-
-	75×	short	$80,924.9615	MISSED	-
-	25×	long	$77,520.8522	MISSED	-
-	50×	short	$81,543.8905	MISSED	-
-	100×	short	$80,615.4970	MISSED	-
-	25×	short	$83,091.2129	MISSED	-

Event-level record for this one cascade: 10 of 24 published levels were reached. reach rate 41.7% · n=24 levels · Wilson 95% lower bound 24.5%. A level counts as REACHED when the cascade's traded price range ($75,855.78-$77,120.90) came within 0.5% of the published level. Misses are shown at equal weight, never hidden. One event is not a track record; the standing measured record follows below.

The measured record, as it stood before this cascade

As of 2026-11-05 14:59 UTC (the last calibration record before this cascade, n=15 day-clusters), the model's walk-forward calibration was below its own validation gate (the Wilson 95% lower bound on out-of-sample precision@N did not clear the published target). Per our honesty rules we do not quote the figure itself while it sits below gate, so only the status. The level-by-level record above stands on its own as the descriptive evidence for this event.

The map these autopsies came from is live

Every autopsy here is built from liquidation-level snapshots the product published in real time, before the event. The delayed map and the full measured track record are open without an account, every figure with its sample size and a Wilson 95% bound. Real time is Pro: $79/mo, Founding 50 from $39/mo. The free account needs no card.

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