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Cascade Autopsy: BTC, 2026-11-04

2026-11-04T14:38:50Z → 14:48:51Z UTC · generated 2026-11-04T15:09:02Z · artifact 2026-11-04T1438-BTC

What happened

Total liquidated
$89.5M
Raw tape events
6,326
Duration
10m 1s
Venues
binance, bitfinex, bitget, bybit, dydx, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx
Dominant symbol
BTCUSDT
Direction
predominantly SHORT liquidations (99% of events), price rose
SymbolLiquidatedEventsShare
BTCUSDT$36.3M2,12640.6%
ETHUSDT$33.5M1,80837.4%
SOLUSDT$5.9M3686.5%
ZECUSDT$3.1M4613.5%
DOGEUSDT$1.1M501.2%

Timeline (UTC, minute by minute)

MinuteEventsLiquidatedTop symbolVenues
14:373$16,630SOXLUSDTbinance, bybit
14:3835$147,955SNDKUSDTbinance, bybit, okx
14:3959$116,240BTCUSDTbinance, bitget, bybit, gateio, okx
14:401,027$12.7MBTCUSDTbinance, bitget, bybit, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx
14:41799$8.7MBTCUSDTbinance, bitget, bybit, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx
14:421,249$17.1MBTCUSDTbinance, bitget, bybit, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx
14:43249$4.9MBTCUSDTbinance, bitfinex, bitget, bybit, gateio, hyperliquid, okx
14:441,017$18.4METHUSDTbinance, bitget, bybit, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx
14:4514$44,299AAPLUSDTbinance, bybit, gateio, okx
14:4680$864,068BTCUSDTbinance, bitget, bybit, gateio, okx
14:47854$12.0METHUSDTbinance, bitget, bybit, dydx, gateio, hyperliquid, okx
14:48976$14.6METHUSDTbinance, bitget, bybit, dydx, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx
14:49788$15.5METHUSDTbinance, bitfinex, bitget, bybit, dydx, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx

Venue breakdown

VenueLiquidatedEvents
binance$37.1M891
okx$17.3M2,098
bybit$10.7M1,197
gateio$10.3M1,158
bitget$8.1M231
hyperliquid$5.5M701
kraken_fut$482,88041
dydx$15,7977
bitfinex$1,3502
Independent re-read of our own captured tape (verify: PASS). Cross-venue capture is the product moat.

What the map showed BEFORE the cascade

Levels snapshot published at 2026-11-04T14:38:08Z: 0 minutes before the cascade start. anchor price $78,618.90. Only snapshots strictly before the cascade start are eligible; nothing published after the start can appear here.
#LeverageSidePredicted levelStatusReached at (UTC)
#1None×long$78,442.0075REACHED14:38:17
#2None×short$78,677.8642REACHED14:38:17
#3None×short$78,913.7209REACHED14:38:17
#475×short$78,461.6622REACHED14:38:17
#575×short$78,776.1378REACHED14:38:17
#650×short$78,776.1378REACHED14:38:17
#7100×short$78,776.1378REACHED14:38:17
#8None×short$79,267.5059REACHED14:39:54
#9None×short$79,503.3626REACHED14:40:35
#10None×short$79,975.0760REACHED14:42:47
-None×short$80,446.7894MISSED-
-None×long$77,262.7240MISSED-
-None×long$77,970.2941MISSED-
-None×long$78,206.1508MISSED-
-75×long$77,203.7598MISSED-
-None×long$77,026.8673MISSED-
-100×long$77,203.7598MISSED-
-50×long$76,574.8086MISSED-
-None×long$76,555.1539MISSED-
-100×short$78,147.1866MISSED-
-25×long$75,002.4306MISSED-
-25×short$80,348.5158MISSED-
Event-level record for this one cascade: 10 of 22 published levels were reached. reach rate 45.5% · n=22 levels · Wilson 95% lower bound 26.9%. A level counts as REACHED when the cascade's traded price range ($78,659.50-$79,920.34) came within 0.5% of the published level. Misses are shown at equal weight, never hidden. One event is not a track record; the standing measured record follows below.

The measured record, as it stood before this cascade

Walk-forward OOS precision@N
72.5%
Wilson 95% lower bound
48.7%
Sample
n=17 day-clusters
Record as of
2026-11-04 13:39 UTC
What this means: in walk-forward out-of-sample evaluation, the model's top-N published zones matched real liquidation clusters in 72.5% of evaluation windows (n=17 day-clusters, Wilson 95% lower bound 48.7%, basis out_of_sample_walk_forward, model v1.cal-20261104). This is a descriptive historical record of zone accuracy, not a forecast of whether or when a cascade starts.

The map these autopsies came from is live

Every autopsy here is built from liquidation-level snapshots the product published in real time, before the event. The delayed map and the full measured track record are open without an account, every figure with its sample size and a Wilson 95% bound. Real time is Pro: $79/mo, Founding 50 from $39/mo. The free account needs no card.

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Method: timeline and magnitudes from our own captured multi-venue liquidation tape (6,326 events; independent re-read PASS). Before-map from timestamped liquidation-level snapshots; measured record from the walk-forward calibration journal, last entry strictly before the cascade start. Descriptive record only, never investment advice, never a forecast. Full track record → Current BTC levels and measured accuracy: BTC coin page →