Cascade Autopsy: ETH, 2026-10-28

2026-10-28T19:57:18Z → 20:02:17Z UTC · generated 2026-10-28T20:09:01Z · artifact 2026-10-28T1957-ETH

What happened

Total liquidated

$60.5M

Raw tape events

2,209

Duration

4m 59s

Venues

binance, bitfinex, bitget, bybit, dydx, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx

Dominant symbol

ETHUSDT

Direction

predominantly SHORT liquidations (99% of events), price rose

Symbol	Liquidated	Events	Share
ETHUSDT	$40.1M	529	66.2%
BTCUSDT	$8.5M	308	14.1%
SOLUSDT	$2.1M	136	3.4%
XAUUSDT	$1.6M	65	2.7%
ZECUSDT	$1.1M	173	1.8%

Timeline (UTC, minute by minute)

Minute	Events	Liquidated	Top symbol	Venues
19:56	91	$1.4M	ETHUSDT	binance, bitget, bybit, gateio, hyperliquid, okx
19:57	131	$947,449	ETHUSDT	binance, bitget, bybit, gateio, hyperliquid, okx
19:58	18	$65,679	XAUUSDT	binance, bitget, bybit, gateio, okx
19:59	123	$726,247	BTCUSDT	binance, bitget, bybit, gateio, hyperliquid, okx
20:00	590	$32.8M	ETHUSDT	binance, bitget, bybit, gateio, hyperliquid, okx
20:01	1,269	$26.0M	ETHUSDT	binance, bitget, bybit, dydx, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx
20:02	174	$763,946	BTCUSDT	binance, bitfinex, bitget, bybit, dydx, gateio, hyperliquid, okx
20:03	13	$38,818	SOXLUSDT	binance, bybit, okx

Venue breakdown

Venue	Liquidated	Events
gateio	$32.9M	250
binance	$16.4M	575
okx	$7.7M	779
bybit	$1.5M	293
bitget	$1.1M	157
hyperliquid	$891,798	133
dydx	$8,023	14
kraken_fut	$6,399	7
bitfinex	$256	1

Independent re-read of our own captured tape (verify: PASS). Cross-venue capture is the product moat.

What the map showed BEFORE the cascade

Levels snapshot published at 2026-10-28T19:53:09Z: 4 minutes before the cascade start. anchor price $2,365.30. Only snapshots strictly before the cascade start are eligible; nothing published after the start can appear here.

#	Leverage	Side	Predicted level	Status	Reached at (UTC)
#1	None×	short	$2,374.1699	REACHED	19:56:20
#2	75×	short	$2,370.0306	REACHED	19:56:20
#3	100×	short	$2,360.5694	REACHED	19:56:20
#4	100×	short	$2,370.0306	REACHED	19:56:20
#5	None×	short	$2,381.2658	REACHED	19:56:21
#6	50×	short	$2,388.9530	REACHED	19:56:33
-	None×	long	$2,345.7863	MISSED	-
-	None×	long	$2,356.4301	MISSED	-
-	75×	long	$2,332.1858	MISSED	-
-	50×	long	$2,313.2634	MISSED	-
-	100×	long	$2,341.6470	MISSED	-
-	None×	long	$2,331.5945	MISSED	-
-	None×	long	$2,320.9506	MISSED	-
-	25×	long	$2,265.9574	MISSED	-
-	25×	short	$2,436.2590	MISSED	-
-	None×	long	$2,306.7588	MISSED	-
-	None×	short	$2,420.2932	MISSED	-

Event-level record for this one cascade: 6 of 17 published levels were reached. reach rate 35.3% · n=17 levels · Wilson 95% lower bound 17.3%. A level counts as REACHED when the cascade's traded price range ($2,368.35-$2,400.15) came within 0.5% of the published level. Misses are shown at equal weight, never hidden. One event is not a track record; the standing measured record follows below.

The measured record, as it stood before this cascade

Walk-forward OOS precision@N

79.3%

Wilson 95% lower bound

54.9%

Sample

n=16 day-clusters

Record as of

2026-10-28 19:47 UTC

What this means: in walk-forward out-of-sample evaluation, the model's top-N published zones matched real liquidation clusters in 79.3% of evaluation windows (n=16 day-clusters, Wilson 95% lower bound 54.9%, basis out_of_sample_walk_forward, model v1.cal-20261028). This is a descriptive historical record of zone accuracy, not a forecast of whether or when a cascade starts.

The map these autopsies came from is live

Every autopsy here is built from liquidation-level snapshots the product published in real time, before the event. The delayed map and the full measured track record are open without an account, every figure with its sample size and a Wilson 95% bound. Real time is Pro: $79/mo, Founding 50 from $39/mo. The free account needs no card.

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