Cascade Autopsy: BTC, 2026-10-22

2026-10-22T16:44:05Z → 16:54:02Z UTC · generated 2026-10-22T17:09:02Z · artifact 2026-10-22T1644-BTC

What happened

Total liquidated

$74.2M

Raw tape events

6,758

Duration

9m 57s

Venues

binance, bybit, dydx, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx

Dominant symbol

BTCUSDT

Direction

predominantly LONG liquidations (99% of events), price fell

Symbol	Liquidated	Events	Share
BTCUSDT	$29.4M	1,554	39.6%
ETHUSDT	$25.0M	1,540	33.7%
SOLUSDT	$3.3M	352	4.4%
XRPUSDT	$1.7M	187	2.4%
ZECUSDT	$1.4M	275	1.9%

Timeline (UTC, minute by minute)

Minute	Events	Liquidated	Top symbol	Venues
16:43	79	$439,338	ETHUSDT	binance, bybit, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx
16:44	119	$929,780	ETHUSDT	binance, bybit, gateio, okx
16:45	318	$2.7M	ETHUSDT	binance, bybit, gateio, hyperliquid, okx
16:46	379	$3.5M	ETHUSDT	binance, bybit, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx
16:47	1,678	$28.2M	BTCUSDT	binance, bybit, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx
16:48	1,067	$9.4M	BTCUSDT	binance, bybit, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx
16:49	458	$2.2M	SOXLUSDT	binance, bybit, gateio, hyperliquid, okx
16:50	1,234	$15.4M	ETHUSDT	binance, bybit, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx
16:51	656	$5.2M	BTCUSDT	binance, bybit, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx
16:52	174	$1.4M	XRPUSDT	binance, bybit, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx
16:53	677	$5.3M	BTCUSDT	binance, bybit, dydx, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx
16:54	17	$90,984	ETHUSDT	binance, bybit, gateio

Venue breakdown

Venue	Liquidated	Events
binance	$25.7M	1,448
okx	$17.8M	1,950
gateio	$17.6M	915
bybit	$7.3M	1,241
hyperliquid	$5.6M	1,042
kraken_fut	$193,406	160
dydx	$1,764	2

Independent re-read of our own captured tape (verify: PASS). Cross-venue capture is the product moat.

What the map showed BEFORE the cascade

Levels snapshot published at 2026-10-22T16:43:05Z: 1 minutes before the cascade start. anchor price $81,415.00. Only snapshots strictly before the cascade start are eligible; nothing published after the start can appear here.

#	Leverage	Side	Predicted level	Status	Reached at (UTC)
#1	None×	long	$81,231.8163	REACHED	16:43:10
#2	None×	short	$81,476.0612	REACHED	16:43:10
#3	None×	short	$81,720.3062	REACHED	16:43:10
#4	50×	long	$81,252.1700	REACHED	16:43:10
#5	75×	long	$81,252.1700	REACHED	16:43:10
#6	100×	long	$81,252.1700	REACHED	16:43:10
#7	None×	long	$80,987.5712	REACHED	16:43:21
#8	None×	long	$80,743.3262	REACHED	16:45:49
#9	25×	long	$80,275.1900	REACHED	16:53:02
-	None×	short	$83,307.8987	MISSED	-
-	None×	long	$80,010.5912	MISSED	-
-	None×	short	$82,819.4088	MISSED	-
-	None×	short	$82,086.6738	MISSED	-
-	None×	short	$82,330.9187	MISSED	-
-	None×	long	$79,766.3463	MISSED	-
-	None×	long	$79,277.8562	MISSED	-
-	10×	long	$75,064.6300	MISSED	-
-	50×	long	$81,903.4900	MISSED	-
-	5×	long	$66,923.1300	MISSED	-
-	25×	short	$85,811.4100	MISSED	-
-	3×	long	$55,850.6900	MISSED	-
-	10×	short	$91,021.9700	MISSED	-
-	75×	long	$82,229.1500	MISSED	-
-	50×	short	$84,183.1100	MISSED	-
-	100×	long	$82,554.8100	MISSED	-
-	5×	short	$99,163.4700	MISSED	-
-	75×	short	$83,857.4500	MISSED	-
-	3×	short	$110,235.9100	MISSED	-
-	100×	short	$83,531.7900	MISSED	-

Event-level record for this one cascade: 9 of 29 published levels were reached. reach rate 31.0% · n=29 levels · Wilson 95% lower bound 17.3%. A level counts as REACHED when the cascade's traded price range ($80,628.10-$81,410.80) came within 0.5% of the published level. Misses are shown at equal weight, never hidden. One event is not a track record; the standing measured record follows below.

The measured record, as it stood before this cascade

As of 2026-10-22 16:16 UTC (the last calibration record before this cascade, n=16 day-clusters), the model's walk-forward calibration was below its own validation gate (the Wilson 95% lower bound on out-of-sample precision@N did not clear the published target). Per our honesty rules we do not quote the figure itself while it sits below gate, so only the status. The level-by-level record above stands on its own as the descriptive evidence for this event.

The map these autopsies came from is live

Every autopsy here is built from liquidation-level snapshots the product published in real time, before the event. The delayed map and the full measured track record are open without an account, every figure with its sample size and a Wilson 95% bound. Real time is Pro: $79/mo, Founding 50 from $39/mo. The free account needs no card.

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