Cascade Autopsy: BTC, 2026-10-22

2026-10-22T16:42:16Z → 16:52:16Z UTC · generated 2026-10-23T08:09:01Z · artifact 2026-10-22T1642-BTC

What happened

Total liquidated

$75.4M

Raw tape events

6,659

Duration

10m 0s

Venues

binance, bybit, deribit, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx

Dominant symbol

BTCUSDT

Direction

predominantly LONG liquidations (99% of events), price fell

Symbol	Liquidated	Events	Share
BTCUSDT	$31.1M	1,429	41.2%
ETHUSDT	$26.3M	1,670	34.9%
SOLUSDT	$2.6M	322	3.4%
SOXLUSDT	$1.6M	148	2.2%
DOGEUSDT	$1.6M	240	2.1%

Timeline (UTC, minute by minute)

Minute	Events	Liquidated	Top symbol	Venues
16:41	198	$2.6M	ETHUSDT	binance, bybit, deribit, gateio, hyperliquid, okx
16:42	180	$1.6M	ETHUSDT	binance, bybit, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx
16:43	85	$453,493	ETHUSDT	binance, bybit, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx
16:44	119	$929,780	ETHUSDT	binance, bybit, gateio, okx
16:45	318	$2.7M	ETHUSDT	binance, bybit, gateio, hyperliquid, okx
16:46	399	$3.6M	ETHUSDT	binance, bybit, deribit, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx
16:47	1,820	$30.0M	BTCUSDT	binance, bybit, deribit, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx
16:48	1,136	$10.1M	BTCUSDT	binance, bybit, deribit, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx
16:49	473	$2.2M	SOXLUSDT	binance, bybit, deribit, gateio, hyperliquid, okx
16:50	1,346	$16.0M	ETHUSDT	binance, bybit, deribit, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx
16:51	761	$7.7M	BTCUSDT	binance, bybit, deribit, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx
16:52	200	$1.6M	XRPUSDT	binance, bybit, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx
16:53	695	$5.4M	BTCUSDT	binance, bybit, deribit, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx

Venue breakdown

Venue	Liquidated	Events
binance	$24.3M	1,355
okx	$17.8M	1,964
gateio	$17.4M	887
hyperliquid	$7.2M	1,075
bybit	$6.0M	1,128
deribit	$2.5M	133
kraken_fut	$173,600	117

Independent re-read of our own captured tape (verify: PASS). Cross-venue capture is the product moat.

What the map showed BEFORE the cascade

Levels snapshot published at 2026-10-22T16:38:06Z: 4 minutes before the cascade start. anchor price $81,501.81. Only snapshots strictly before the cascade start are eligible; nothing published after the start can appear here.

#	Leverage	Side	Predicted level	Status	Reached at (UTC)
#1	None×	long	$81,318.4309	REACHED	16:41:20
#2	None×	long	$81,073.9255	REACHED	16:41:20
#3	None×	short	$81,562.9364	REACHED	16:41:20
#4	None×	short	$81,807.4418	REACHED	16:41:20
#5	50×	long	$81,664.8136	REACHED	16:41:20
#6	50×	long	$81,338.8064	REACHED	16:41:20
#7	75×	long	$81,338.8064	REACHED	16:41:20
#8	100×	long	$81,338.8064	REACHED	16:41:20
#9	None×	long	$80,829.4201	REACHED	16:41:35
-	None×	short	$83,396.7271	MISSED	-
-	None×	long	$80,095.9038	MISSED	-
-	None×	short	$82,907.7162	MISSED	-
-	None×	short	$82,174.1999	MISSED	-
-	None×	short	$82,418.7054	MISSED	-
-	None×	long	$79,851.3983	MISSED	-
-	25×	long	$80,034.7774	MISSED	-
-	None×	long	$79,362.3875	MISSED	-
-	10×	long	$75,144.6688	MISSED	-
-	5×	long	$66,994.4878	MISSED	-
-	25×	short	$85,902.9077	MISSED	-
-	3×	long	$55,910.2417	MISSED	-
-	10×	short	$90,793.0163	MISSED	-
-	75×	long	$82,316.8281	MISSED	-
-	50×	short	$84,272.8715	MISSED	-
-	100×	long	$82,642.8353	MISSED	-
-	5×	short	$99,269.2046	MISSED	-
-	75×	short	$83,620.8571	MISSED	-
-	3×	short	$110,353.4507	MISSED	-
-	100×	short	$83,294.8498	MISSED	-

Event-level record for this one cascade: 9 of 29 published levels were reached. reach rate 31.0% · n=29 levels · Wilson 95% lower bound 17.3%. A level counts as REACHED when the cascade's traded price range ($80,628.10-$81,458.67) came within 0.5% of the published level. Misses are shown at equal weight, never hidden. One event is not a track record; the standing measured record follows below.

The measured record, as it stood before this cascade

As of 2026-10-22 16:16 UTC (the last calibration record before this cascade, n=16 day-clusters), the model's walk-forward calibration was below its own validation gate (the Wilson 95% lower bound on out-of-sample precision@N did not clear the published target). Per our honesty rules we do not quote the figure itself while it sits below gate, so only the status. The level-by-level record above stands on its own as the descriptive evidence for this event.

The map these autopsies came from is live

Every autopsy here is built from liquidation-level snapshots the product published in real time, before the event. The delayed map and the full measured track record are open without an account, every figure with its sample size and a Wilson 95% bound. Real time is Pro: $79/mo, Founding 50 from $39/mo. The free account needs no card.

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