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Cascade Autopsy: ETH, 2026-09-21

2026-09-21T00:11:49Z → 00:21:50Z UTC · generated 2026-09-21T00:39:01Z · artifact 2026-09-21T0011-ETH

What happened

Total liquidated
$58.0M
Raw tape events
4,010
Duration
10m 1s
Venues
binance, bitfinex, bybit, dydx, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx
Dominant symbol
ETHUSDT
Direction
predominantly SHORT liquidations (78% of events), price rose
SymbolLiquidatedEventsShare
ETHUSDT$41.2M1,73771.1%
BTCUSDT$11.5M66019.8%
SOLUSDT$1.2M2422.1%
AVAXUSDT$608,0231691.0%
SUIUSDT$522,4722130.9%

Timeline (UTC, minute by minute)

MinuteEventsLiquidatedTop symbolVenues
00:1123$132,016ETHUSDTbinance, bybit, gateio, okx
00:12591$8.0METHUSDTbinance, bybit, gateio, hyperliquid, okx
00:131,119$20.1METHUSDTbinance, bitfinex, bybit, dydx, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx
00:1460$1.8MBTCUSDTbinance, bybit, gateio, hyperliquid, okx
00:15121$3.1METHUSDTbinance, bybit, gateio, hyperliquid, okx
00:16283$4.2METHUSDTbinance, bitfinex, bybit, gateio, hyperliquid, okx
00:1710$34,149ETHUSDTbinance, bybit, gateio
00:18289$1.4MBTCUSDTbinance, bybit, dydx, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx
00:19548$2.5MBTCUSDTbinance, bybit, dydx, gateio, hyperliquid, okx
00:20504$4.2METHUSDTbinance, bybit, dydx, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx
00:21489$12.5METHUSDTbinance, bybit, gateio, hyperliquid, okx
00:2225$103,905SOLUSDTbinance, bybit, gateio, hyperliquid, okx

Venue breakdown

VenueLiquidatedEvents
binance$20.5M583
gateio$17.4M853
okx$12.6M1,059
bybit$4.9M698
hyperliquid$2.5M743
dydx$99,44846
kraken_fut$15,23626
bitfinex$3242
Independent re-read of our own captured tape (verify: PASS). Cross-venue capture is the product moat.

What the map showed BEFORE the cascade

Levels snapshot published at 2026-09-21T00:08:08Z: 3 minutes before the cascade start. anchor price $2,653.28. Only snapshots strictly before the cascade start are eligible; nothing published after the start can appear here.
#LeverageSidePredicted levelStatusReached at (UTC)
#1None×long$2,643.3302REACHED00:11:11
#250×short$2,637.3603REACHED00:11:11
#350×short$2,658.5866REACHED00:11:11
#475×short$2,658.5866REACHED00:11:11
#5100×short$2,658.5866REACHED00:11:11
#6None×long$2,631.3904REACHED00:11:12
#775×short$2,626.7472REACHED00:11:12
#8None×short$2,663.2298REACHED00:12:20
#9None×short$2,671.1896REACHED00:12:38
#1025×short$2,690.4259REACHED00:12:56
#11None×short$2,714.9688REACHED00:21:13
-None×long$2,615.4708MISSED-
-25×long$2,510.0029MISSED-
-10×long$2,350.8061MISSED-
-None×long$2,603.5310MISSED-
-50×long$2,563.0685MISSED-
-5×long$2,096.0912MISSED-
-10×short$2,849.6227MISSED-
-3×long$1,745.8582MISSED-
-75×long$2,584.2947MISSED-
-5×short$3,104.3376MISSED-
-None×long$2,587.6113MISSED-
-100×long$2,584.2947MISSED-
-3×short$3,454.5706MISSED-
-100×short$2,616.1341MISSED-
Event-level record for this one cascade: 11 of 25 published levels were reached. reach rate 44.0% · n=25 levels · Wilson 95% lower bound 26.7%. A level counts as REACHED when the cascade's traded price range ($2,639.19-$2,705.27) came within 0.5% of the published level. Misses are shown at equal weight, never hidden. One event is not a track record; the standing measured record follows below.

The measured record, as it stood before this cascade

Walk-forward OOS precision@N
55.3%
Wilson 95% lower bound
32.4%
Sample
n=16 day-clusters
Record as of
2026-09-20 23:27 UTC
What this means: in walk-forward out-of-sample evaluation, the model's top-N published zones matched real liquidation clusters in 55.3% of evaluation windows (n=16 day-clusters, Wilson 95% lower bound 32.4%, basis out_of_sample_walk_forward, model v1.cal-20260920). This is a descriptive historical record of zone accuracy, not a forecast of whether or when a cascade starts.

The map these autopsies came from is live

Every autopsy here is built from liquidation-level snapshots the product published in real time, before the event. The delayed map and the full measured track record are open without an account, every figure with its sample size and a Wilson 95% bound. Real time is Pro: $79/mo, Founding 50 from $39/mo. The free account needs no card.

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Share this autopsy: Post on X → · https://hunterkiller.io/go/autopsy?c=autopsy-share&r=TG-CHANNEL. The link is referral-coded and lands on the public autopsy library.
Method: timeline and magnitudes from our own captured multi-venue liquidation tape (4,010 events; independent re-read PASS). Before-map from timestamped liquidation-level snapshots; measured record from the walk-forward calibration journal, last entry strictly before the cascade start. Descriptive record only, never investment advice, never a forecast. Full track record → Current ETH levels and measured accuracy: ETH coin page →