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Cascade Autopsy: ETH, 2026-09-15

2026-09-15T18:33:54Z → 18:54:17Z UTC · generated 2026-09-15T19:09:01Z · artifact 2026-09-15T1833-ETH

What happened

Total liquidated
$293.3M
Raw tape events
14,713
Duration
20m 23s
Venues
binance, bitfinex, bitmex, bybit, dydx, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx
Dominant symbol
ETHUSDT
Direction
mixed: 1549 long / 839 short liquidations
SymbolLiquidatedEventsShare
ETHUSDT$138.9M2,88247.4%
BTCUSDT$87.0M2,68729.7%
XRPUSDT$20.9M1,6897.1%
SOLUSDT$15.2M1,5175.2%
DOGEUSDT$4.7M6341.6%

Timeline (UTC, minute by minute)

MinuteEventsLiquidatedTop symbolVenues
18:33121$1.0MBTCUSDTbinance, bitfinex, bybit, dydx, gateio, hyperliquid, okx
18:3425$193,025BTCUSDTbinance, gateio, kraken_fut, okx
18:351$165COINUSDTokx
18:3671$235,488XRPUSDTbinance, bybit, dydx, gateio, okx
18:372,178$42.7METHUSDTbinance, bitfinex, bybit, dydx, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx
18:3816$36,462ETHUSDTbinance, bybit, gateio, okx
18:395$11,244XLMUSDTbinance, okx
18:40278$3.0MXRPUSDTbinance, bitfinex, bybit, gateio, hyperliquid, okx
18:41559$9.1MXRPUSDTbinance, bitfinex, bybit, dydx, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx
18:42826$5.0MXRPUSDTbinance, bitfinex, bybit, dydx, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx
18:43301$5.8MBTCUSDTbinance, bybit, dydx, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx
18:4475$331,747XLMUSDTbinance, bybit, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx
18:453,256$32.7MBTCUSDTbinance, bitfinex, bybit, dydx, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx
18:461,037$14.3MBTCUSDTbinance, bitfinex, bybit, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx
18:47546$12.7METHUSDTbinance, bitfinex, bitmex, bybit, dydx, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx
18:482,398$137.3METHUSDTbinance, bybit, dydx, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx
18:492,210$19.1METHUSDTbinance, bitfinex, bitmex, bybit, dydx, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx
18:50233$3.2MBTCUSDTbinance, bybit, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx
18:51194$2.0METHUSDTbinance, bybit, gateio, okx
18:52178$1.9MBTCUSDTbinance, bybit, gateio, kraken_fut, okx
18:53164$2.1METHUSDTbinance, bybit, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx
18:54175$1.3MBTCUSDTbinance, bybit, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx
18:5560$448,090BTCUSDTbinance, bybit, gateio, hyperliquid, okx

Venue breakdown

VenueLiquidatedEvents
binance$109.6M2,254
gateio$86.6M2,036
okx$58.9M4,466
bybit$25.4M3,793
bitfinex$6.5M132
hyperliquid$5.5M1,695
kraken_fut$634,236279
dydx$55,32956
bitmex$2,3752
Independent re-read of our own captured tape (verify: PASS). Cross-venue capture is the product moat.

What the map showed BEFORE the cascade

Levels snapshot published at 2026-09-15T18:33:13Z: 0 minutes before the cascade start. anchor price $2,426.78. Only snapshots strictly before the cascade start are eligible; nothing published after the start can appear here.
#LeverageSidePredicted levelStatusReached at (UTC)
#1None×long$2,406.7591REACHED18:33:22
#2None×long$2,417.6796REACHED18:33:22
#3None×short$2,435.8804REACHED18:33:22
#450×long$2,421.9264REACHED18:33:22
#575×long$2,421.9264REACHED18:33:22
#6100×long$2,421.9264REACHED18:33:22
#725×long$2,402.5122REACHED18:33:57
#8None×long$2,392.1984REACHED18:37:05
#9None×long$2,381.2779REACHED18:37:10
#10None×long$2,366.7172REACHED18:37:12
-None×short$2,443.1608MISSED-
-10×long$2,247.1983MISSED-
-50×long$2,451.0478MISSED-
-5×long$2,004.5203MISSED-
-25×short$2,577.2404MISSED-
-3×long$1,674.4782MISSED-
-75×long$2,470.4620MISSED-
-10×short$2,722.8472MISSED-
-50×short$2,528.7048MISSED-
-100×long$2,480.1692MISSED-
-5×short$2,975.2323MISSED-
-None×short$2,483.2026MISSED-
-75×short$2,509.2905MISSED-
-3×short$3,305.2744MISSED-
-100×short$2,499.5834MISSED-
Event-level record for this one cascade: 10 of 25 published levels were reached. reach rate 40.0% · n=25 levels · Wilson 95% lower bound 23.4%. A level counts as REACHED when the cascade's traded price range ($2,349.39-$2,424.95) came within 0.5% of the published level. Misses are shown at equal weight, never hidden. One event is not a track record; the standing measured record follows below.

The measured record, as it stood before this cascade

Walk-forward OOS precision@N
59.1%
Wilson 95% lower bound
35.7%
Sample
n=16 day-clusters
Record as of
2026-09-15 17:57 UTC
What this means: in walk-forward out-of-sample evaluation, the model's top-N published zones matched real liquidation clusters in 59.1% of evaluation windows (n=16 day-clusters, Wilson 95% lower bound 35.7%, basis out_of_sample_walk_forward, model v1.cal-20260915). This is a descriptive historical record of zone accuracy, not a forecast of whether or when a cascade starts.

The map these autopsies came from is live

Every autopsy here is built from liquidation-level snapshots the product published in real time, before the event. The delayed map and the full measured track record are open without an account, every figure with its sample size and a Wilson 95% bound. Real time is Pro: $79/mo, Founding 50 from $39/mo. The free account needs no card.

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Share this autopsy: Post on X → · https://hunterkiller.io/go/autopsy?c=autopsy-share&r=TG-CHANNEL. The link is referral-coded and lands on the public autopsy library.
Method: timeline and magnitudes from our own captured multi-venue liquidation tape (14,713 events; independent re-read PASS). Before-map from timestamped liquidation-level snapshots; measured record from the walk-forward calibration journal, last entry strictly before the cascade start. Descriptive record only, never investment advice, never a forecast. Full track record → Current ETH levels and measured accuracy: ETH coin page →