Cascade Autopsy: ETH, 2026-09-11

2026-09-11T13:47:32Z → 13:52:32Z UTC · generated 2026-09-11T14:09:01Z · artifact 2026-09-11T1347-ETH

What happened

Total liquidated

$86.3M

Raw tape events

5,177

Duration

5m 0s

Venues

binance, bitfinex, bitmex, bybit, dydx, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx

Dominant symbol

ETHUSDT

Direction

predominantly SHORT liquidations (76% of events), price rose

Symbol	Liquidated	Events	Share
ETHUSDT	$59.0M	2,474	68.4%
BTCUSDT	$17.5M	961	20.3%
SOLUSDT	$3.1M	325	3.6%
ZECUSDT	$1.9M	465	2.3%
XRPUSDT	$1.4M	161	1.7%

Timeline (UTC, minute by minute)

Minute	Events	Liquidated	Top symbol	Venues
13:46	39	$1.0M	ETHUSDT	binance, bybit, gateio, hyperliquid, okx
13:47	326	$4.7M	ETHUSDT	binance, bybit, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx
13:48	845	$9.8M	ETHUSDT	binance, bybit, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx
13:49	2,448	$46.5M	ETHUSDT	binance, bybit, dydx, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx
13:50	155	$1.2M	ETHUSDT	binance, bitfinex, bybit, gateio, hyperliquid, okx
13:51	212	$812,300	ZECUSDT	binance, bybit, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx
13:52	1,400	$26.3M	ETHUSDT	binance, bitfinex, bitmex, bybit, dydx, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx
13:53	163	$3.4M	BTCUSDT	binance, bybit, gateio, hyperliquid, okx

Venue breakdown

Venue	Liquidated	Events
binance	$35.8M	692
okx	$16.0M	1,689
gateio	$14.5M	927
bybit	$10.3M	1,063
hyperliquid	$9.1M	664
kraken_fut	$580,477	109
dydx	$28,256	27
bitfinex	$15,323	5
bitmex	$2,280	1

Independent re-read of our own captured tape (verify: PASS). Cross-venue capture is the product moat.

What the map showed BEFORE the cascade

Levels snapshot published at 2026-09-11T13:43:08Z: 4 minutes before the cascade start. anchor price $2,519.15. Only snapshots strictly before the cascade start are eligible; nothing published after the start can appear here.

#	Leverage	Side	Predicted level	Status	Reached at (UTC)
#1	None×	short	$2,536.1543	REACHED	13:46:32
#2	None×	short	$2,528.5968	REACHED	13:46:32
#3	50×	short	$2,524.1883	REACHED	13:46:32
#4	75×	short	$2,524.1883	REACHED	13:46:32
#5	100×	short	$2,524.1883	REACHED	13:46:32
#6	25×	short	$2,544.3415	REACHED	13:47:13
#7	None×	short	$2,577.7202	REACHED	13:49:18
-	None×	long	$2,498.3670	MISSED	-
-	None×	long	$2,509.7032	MISSED	-
-	50×	short	$2,493.9585	MISSED	-
-	75×	short	$2,473.8053	MISSED	-
-	50×	long	$2,423.4223	MISSED	-
-	25×	long	$2,373.0393	MISSED	-
-	75×	long	$2,433.4989	MISSED	-
-	None×	long	$2,483.2521	MISSED	-
-	100×	short	$2,473.8053	MISSED	-
-	100×	long	$2,443.5755	MISSED	-
-	None×	long	$2,471.9159	MISSED	-
-	None×	long	$2,456.8010	MISSED	-
-	10×	short	$2,695.4905	MISSED	-
-	10×	long	$2,221.8903	MISSED	-

Event-level record for this one cascade: 7 of 21 published levels were reached. reach rate 33.3% · n=21 levels · Wilson 95% lower bound 17.2%. A level counts as REACHED when the cascade's traded price range ($2,527.21-$2,610.63) came within 0.5% of the published level. Misses are shown at equal weight, never hidden. One event is not a track record; the standing measured record follows below.

The measured record, as it stood before this cascade

Walk-forward OOS precision@N

74.5%

Wilson 95% lower bound

50.0%

Sample

n=16 day-clusters

Record as of

2026-09-11 13:03 UTC

What this means: in walk-forward out-of-sample evaluation, the model's top-N published zones matched real liquidation clusters in 74.5% of evaluation windows (n=16 day-clusters, Wilson 95% lower bound 50.0%, basis out_of_sample_walk_forward, model v1.cal-20260911). This is a descriptive historical record of zone accuracy, not a forecast of whether or when a cascade starts.

The map these autopsies came from is live

Every autopsy here is built from liquidation-level snapshots the product published in real time, before the event. The delayed map and the full measured track record are open without an account, every figure with its sample size and a Wilson 95% bound. Real time is Pro: $79/mo, Founding 50 from $39/mo. The free account needs no card.

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