← All cascade autopsies
Descriptive record: not a forecast. This page records what our liquidation map showed before this cascade (snapshot timestamps shown), what then happened on our multi-venue tape, and the model's measured historical record as it stood before the event. Every accuracy figure carries its sample size and a Wilson 95% lower bound. It does not predict future price moves and does not claim the model forecasts when a cascade will start.
Cascade Autopsy: BTC, 2026-09-09
2026-09-09T22:06:57Z → 22:11:57Z UTC · generated 2026-09-09T22:39:01Z · artifact 2026-09-09T2206-BTC
What happened
Venues
binance, bitfinex, bitmex, bybit, dydx, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx
Direction
predominantly LONG liquidations (69% of events), price fell
| Symbol | Liquidated | Events | Share |
|---|
| BTCUSDT | $14.1M | 740 | 27.0% |
| ETHUSDT | $12.7M | 892 | 24.3% |
| SOLUSDT | $6.5M | 827 | 12.5% |
| DOGEUSDT | $3.3M | 423 | 6.2% |
| XRPUSDT | $2.8M | 348 | 5.3% |
Timeline (UTC, minute by minute)
| Minute | Events | Liquidated | Top symbol | Venues |
|---|
| 22:05 | 20 | $15,832 | MARSCOINUSDT | binance, bybit, gateio, okx |
| 22:06 | 100 | $598,331 | ETHUSDT | binance, bybit, gateio, hyperliquid, okx |
| 22:07 | 750 | $3.8M | SOLUSDT | binance, bitfinex, bybit, dydx, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx |
| 22:08 | 4,481 | $32.8M | ETHUSDT | binance, bitmex, bybit, dydx, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx |
| 22:09 | 2,117 | $15.7M | BTCUSDT | binance, bybit, dydx, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx |
| 22:10 | 28 | $159,702 | ZECUSDT | binance, bybit, gateio, okx |
| 22:11 | 22 | $24,909 | BTCUSDT | binance, gateio, okx |
| 22:12 | 10 | $24,036 | HYPEUSDT | binance |
Venue breakdown
| Venue | Liquidated | Events |
|---|
| binance | $23.6M | 1,936 |
| okx | $15.6M | 1,610 |
| bybit | $6.1M | 2,053 |
| gateio | $5.1M | 605 |
| hyperliquid | $1.9M | 1,150 |
| kraken_fut | $207,490 | 37 |
| bitfinex | $1,259 | 3 |
| dydx | $1,156 | 4 |
| bitmex | $100 | 1 |
Independent re-read of our own captured tape (verify: PASS). Cross-venue capture is the product moat.
What the map showed BEFORE the cascade
Levels snapshot published at 2026-09-09T22:03:05Z: 3 minutes before the cascade start. anchor price $78,063.30. Only snapshots strictly before the cascade start are eligible; nothing published after the start can appear here.
| # | Leverage | Side | Predicted level | Status | Reached at (UTC) |
|---|
| #1 | None× | short | $78,238.9424 | REACHED | 22:06:06 |
| #2 | 75× | long | $78,219.4266 | REACHED | 22:06:06 |
| #3 | 75× | long | $77,907.1734 | REACHED | 22:06:06 |
| #4 | 100× | long | $77,907.1734 | REACHED | 22:06:06 |
| #5 | 50× | long | $77,594.9202 | REACHED | 22:06:12 |
| #6 | 100× | long | $78,531.6798 | REACHED | 22:07:29 |
| #7 | None× | long | $77,302.1828 | REACHED | 22:07:31 |
| #8 | None× | long | $77,067.9929 | REACHED | 22:08:59 |
| - | 25× | long | $76,033.6542 | MISSED | - |
| - | None× | long | $76,014.1384 | MISSED | - |
| - | 10× | long | $71,349.8562 | MISSED | - |
| - | None× | short | $79,058.6071 | MISSED | - |
| - | 25× | short | $81,654.2118 | MISSED | - |
| - | None× | short | $78,824.4172 | MISSED | - |
| - | None× | short | $78,590.2273 | MISSED | - |
| - | 10× | short | $86,338.0098 | MISSED | - |
| - | 50× | short | $80,092.9458 | MISSED | - |
| - | None× | long | $75,194.4737 | MISSED | - |
| - | 5× | long | $63,543.5262 | MISSED | - |
| - | None× | long | $74,257.7141 | MISSED | - |
| - | None× | short | $80,229.5566 | MISSED | - |
| - | 3× | long | $52,926.9174 | MISSED | - |
| - | None× | long | $73,672.2394 | MISSED | - |
| - | 5× | short | $94,144.3398 | MISSED | - |
| - | 75× | short | $79,468.4394 | MISSED | - |
| - | None× | short | $80,697.9364 | MISSED | - |
| - | 3× | short | $104,760.9486 | MISSED | - |
| - | 100× | short | $79,156.1862 | MISSED | - |
Event-level record for this one cascade: 8 of 28 published levels were reached. reach rate 28.6% · n=28 levels · Wilson 95% lower bound 15.3%. A level counts as REACHED when the cascade's traded price range ($77,372.20-$78,193.40) came within 0.5% of the published level. Misses are shown at equal weight, never hidden. One event is not a track record; the standing measured record follows below.
The measured record, as it stood before this cascade
Walk-forward OOS precision@N
72.0%
Wilson 95% lower bound
47.6%
Record as of
2026-09-09 21:20 UTC
What this means: in walk-forward out-of-sample evaluation, the model's top-N published zones matched real liquidation clusters in 72.0% of evaluation windows (n=16 day-clusters, Wilson 95% lower bound 47.6%, basis out_of_sample_walk_forward, model v1.cal-20260909). This is a descriptive historical record of zone accuracy, not a forecast of whether or when a cascade starts.
The map these autopsies came from is live
Every autopsy here is built from liquidation-level snapshots the product published in real time, before the event. The delayed map and the full measured track record are open without an account, every figure with its sample size and a Wilson 95% bound. Real time is Pro: $79/mo, Founding 50 from $39/mo. The free account needs no card.
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