Cascade Autopsy: ETH, 2026-09-04

2026-09-04T12:28:45Z → 12:33:44Z UTC · generated 2026-09-04T12:39:01Z · artifact 2026-09-04T1228-ETH

What happened

Total liquidated

$144.9M

Raw tape events

6,912

Duration

4m 59s

Venues

binance, bitfinex, bitmex, bybit, dydx, gateio, kraken_fut, okx

Dominant symbol

ETHUSDT

Direction

mixed: 4444 long / 2468 short liquidations

Symbol	Liquidated	Events	Share
ETHUSDT	$55.0M	1,336	37.9%
BTCUSDT	$41.4M	998	28.6%
XRPUSDT	$15.4M	559	10.6%
SOLUSDT	$9.8M	631	6.8%
XAUUSDT	$3.1M	186	2.2%

Timeline (UTC, minute by minute)

Minute	Events	Liquidated	Top symbol	Venues
12:27	1	$74	PONSUSDT	bybit
12:28	27	$95,445	1000PEPEUSDT	binance, bybit, okx
12:29	77	$377,950	ZECUSDT	binance, bybit, gateio, okx
12:30	3,624	$55.1M	ETHUSDT	binance, bitfinex, bitmex, bybit, dydx, gateio, kraken_fut, okx
12:31	2,103	$77.3M	BTCUSDT	binance, bitfinex, bitmex, bybit, dydx, gateio, kraken_fut, okx
12:32	1,059	$11.9M	ETHUSDT	binance, bybit, dydx, gateio, kraken_fut, okx
12:33	58	$341,651	BTCUSDT	binance, bybit, gateio, okx
12:34	84	$232,601	ZECUSDT	binance, bybit, gateio, okx

Venue breakdown

Venue	Liquidated	Events
binance	$84.6M	1,259
okx	$22.3M	1,934
bybit	$17.5M	2,221
gateio	$16.5M	1,195
bitfinex	$2.1M	40
dydx	$1.5M	178
kraken_fut	$436,421	83
bitmex	$18,700	2

Independent re-read of our own captured tape (verify: PASS). Cross-venue capture is the product moat.

What the map showed BEFORE the cascade

Levels snapshot published at 2026-09-04T12:28:09Z: 0 minutes before the cascade start. anchor price $2,523.35. Only snapshots strictly before the cascade start are eligible; nothing published after the start can appear here.

#	Leverage	Side	Predicted level	Status	Reached at (UTC)
#1	None×	long	$2,513.8874	REACHED	12:28:33
#2	None×	short	$2,532.8126	REACHED	12:28:33
#3	75×	short	$2,518.3033	REACHED	12:28:33
#4	75×	short	$2,528.3967	REACHED	12:28:33
#5	100×	short	$2,528.3967	REACHED	12:28:33
#6	50×	short	$2,538.4901	REACHED	12:29:25
#7	None×	short	$2,540.3826	REACHED	12:29:32
#8	None×	long	$2,502.5324	REACHED	12:30:01
#9	100×	short	$2,508.2099	REACHED	12:30:01
#10	None×	long	$2,487.3923	REACHED	12:30:03
#11	100×	long	$2,488.0231	REACHED	12:30:03
#12	75×	long	$2,477.9297	REACHED	12:30:05
#13	None×	long	$2,476.0372	REACHED	12:30:05
#14	50×	long	$2,467.8363	REACHED	12:30:14
#15	None×	long	$2,460.8971	REACHED	12:30:15
#16	25×	long	$2,417.3693	REACHED	12:32:12
-	25×	short	$2,588.9571	MISSED	-
-	None×	short	$2,582.0179	MISSED	-
-	10×	short	$2,740.3581	MISSED	-
-	10×	long	$2,265.9683	MISSED	-

Event-level record for this one cascade: 16 of 20 published levels were reached. reach rate 80.0% · n=20 levels · Wilson 95% lower bound 58.4%. A level counts as REACHED when the cascade's traded price range ($2,428.07-$2,539.18) came within 0.5% of the published level. Misses are shown at equal weight, never hidden. One event is not a track record; the standing measured record follows below.

The measured record, as it stood before this cascade

Walk-forward OOS precision@N

85.5%

Wilson 95% lower bound

61.7%

Sample

n=16 day-clusters

Record as of

2026-09-04 11:31 UTC

What this means: in walk-forward out-of-sample evaluation, the model's top-N published zones matched real liquidation clusters in 85.5% of evaluation windows (n=16 day-clusters, Wilson 95% lower bound 61.7%, basis out_of_sample_walk_forward, model v1.cal-20260904). This is a descriptive historical record of zone accuracy, not a forecast of whether or when a cascade starts.

The map these autopsies came from is live

Every autopsy here is built from liquidation-level snapshots the product published in real time, before the event. The delayed map and the full measured track record are open without an account, every figure with its sample size and a Wilson 95% bound. Real time is Pro: $79/mo, Founding 50 from $39/mo. The free account needs no card.

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