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Cascade Autopsy: BTC, 2026-09-03

2026-09-03T15:50:56Z → 16:00:58Z UTC · generated 2026-09-03T16:09:01Z · artifact 2026-09-03T1550-BTC

What happened

Total liquidated
$229.0M
Raw tape events
3,450
Duration
10m 2s
Venues
binance, bitfinex, bitmex, bybit, dydx, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx
Dominant symbol
BTCUSDT
Direction
predominantly SHORT liquidations (78% of events), price rose
SymbolLiquidatedEventsShare
BTCUSDT$206.1M92690.0%
ETHUSDT$14.5M6826.3%
ZECUSDT$5.4M7522.4%
SOLUSDT$446,630920.2%
XRPUSDT$396,983600.2%

Timeline (UTC, minute by minute)

MinuteEventsLiquidatedTop symbolVenues
15:492$623XRPUSDTbinance, okx
15:5013$12,468XRPUSDTbinance, bybit, gateio, okx
15:51332$2.7MBTCUSDTbinance, bitmex, bybit, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx
15:521,186$21.7MBTCUSDTbinance, bybit, dydx, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx
15:53415$2.2MZECUSDTbinance, bybit, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx
15:5452$311,844ZECUSDTbinance, bybit, gateio, okx
15:55158$1.0MBTCUSDTbinance, bybit, gateio, hyperliquid, okx
15:5622$49,1361000PEPEUSDTbinance, bitfinex, bybit, gateio, okx
15:57253$3.3MBTCUSDTbinance, bybit, gateio, okx
15:58747$190.8MBTCUSDTbinance, bitfinex, bybit, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx
15:59153$2.2MBTCUSDTbinance, bybit, gateio, hyperliquid, okx
16:00129$4.6METHUSDTbinance, bybit, gateio, okx
16:0165$213,218ADAUSDTbinance, bybit, gateio, okx

Venue breakdown

VenueLiquidatedEvents
bitfinex$185.0M14
binance$15.8M632
okx$12.5M944
gateio$8.5M800
bybit$4.0M668
hyperliquid$3.0M322
kraken_fut$206,27644
bitmex$37,2571
dydx$21,93125
Independent re-read of our own captured tape (verify: PASS). Cross-venue capture is the product moat.

What the map showed BEFORE the cascade

Levels snapshot published at 2026-09-03T15:48:15Z: 2 minutes before the cascade start. anchor price $80,722.75. Only snapshots strictly before the cascade start are eligible; nothing published after the start can appear here.
#LeverageSidePredicted levelStatusReached at (UTC)
#1None×short$81,146.5444REACHED15:51:08
#225×short$80,561.3045REACHED15:51:08
#325×short$80,884.1955REACHED15:51:08
#4None×short$80,783.2921REACHED15:51:08
#550×short$80,884.1955REACHED15:51:08
#675×short$80,884.1955REACHED15:51:08
#7100×short$80,884.1955REACHED15:51:08
#8None×short$81,509.7968REACHED15:51:20
#9None×short$81,751.9651REACHED15:52:06
#1075×short$78,301.0675REACHED15:58:20
#11100×short$78,301.0675REACHED15:58:20
#12None×long$79,572.4508REACHED-
#13None×long$79,209.1984REACHED-
#14None×long$79,935.7032REACHED-
#15None×long$78,603.7778REACHED-
#1650×short$78,946.8495REACHED-
-None×long$76,787.5159MISSED-
-None×long$77,514.0207MISSED-
-25×long$75,072.1575MISSED-
-10×long$70,228.7925MISSED-
-None×short$82,357.3857MISSED-
-None×short$82,841.7222MISSED-
-10×short$85,081.7785MISSED-
-50×long$76,686.6125MISSED-
-5×long$62,479.4085MISSED-
-5×short$92,831.1625MISSED-
-3×long$52,146.8965MISSED-
-75×long$77,009.5035MISSED-
-3×short$103,163.6745MISSED-
-100×long$77,332.3945MISSED-
Event-level record for this one cascade: 16 of 30 published levels were reached. reach rate 53.3% · n=30 levels · Wilson 95% lower bound 36.1%. A level counts as REACHED when the cascade's traded price range ($78,001.50-$81,609.10) came within 0.5% of the published level. Misses are shown at equal weight, never hidden. One event is not a track record; the standing measured record follows below.

The measured record, as it stood before this cascade

Walk-forward OOS precision@N
80.6%
Wilson 95% lower bound
56.3%
Sample
n=16 day-clusters
Record as of
2026-09-03 14:42 UTC
What this means: in walk-forward out-of-sample evaluation, the model's top-N published zones matched real liquidation clusters in 80.6% of evaluation windows (n=16 day-clusters, Wilson 95% lower bound 56.3%, basis out_of_sample_walk_forward, model v1.cal-20260903). This is a descriptive historical record of zone accuracy, not a forecast of whether or when a cascade starts.

The map these autopsies came from is live

Every autopsy here is built from liquidation-level snapshots the product published in real time, before the event. The delayed map and the full measured track record are open without an account, every figure with its sample size and a Wilson 95% bound. Real time is Pro: $79/mo, Founding 50 from $39/mo. The free account needs no card.

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Share this autopsy: Post on X → · https://hunterkiller.io/go/autopsy?c=autopsy-share&r=TG-CHANNEL. The link is referral-coded and lands on the public autopsy library.
Method: timeline and magnitudes from our own captured multi-venue liquidation tape (3,450 events; independent re-read PASS). Before-map from timestamped liquidation-level snapshots; measured record from the walk-forward calibration journal, last entry strictly before the cascade start. Descriptive record only, never investment advice, never a forecast. Full track record → Current BTC levels and measured accuracy: BTC coin page →