Cascade Autopsy: BTC, 2026-08-28

2026-08-28T16:20:27Z → 16:25:27Z UTC · generated 2026-08-28T16:39:01Z · artifact 2026-08-28T1620-BTC

What happened

Total liquidated

$98.7M

Raw tape events

4,899

Duration

5m 0s

Venues

binance, bitfinex, bitmex, bybit, dydx, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx

Dominant symbol

BTCUSDT

Direction

predominantly LONG liquidations (78% of events), price fell

Symbol	Liquidated	Events	Share
BTCUSDT	$48.0M	1,483	48.6%
ETHUSDT	$37.3M	1,241	37.8%
SOLUSDT	$3.4M	339	3.5%
XRPUSDT	$2.6M	243	2.6%
XAUUSDT	$1.8M	96	1.8%

Timeline (UTC, minute by minute)

Minute	Events	Liquidated	Top symbol	Venues
16:19	2	$944	XAUTUSDT	binance, okx
16:20	72	$830,157	XAUUSDT	binance, bybit, gateio, hyperliquid, okx
16:21	76	$1.6M	XAUUSDT	binance, bybit, gateio, hyperliquid, okx
16:22	151	$987,254	BTCUSDT	binance, bybit, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx
16:23	825	$16.5M	BTCUSDT	binance, bitmex, bybit, dydx, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx
16:24	2,103	$55.9M	ETHUSDT	binance, bitfinex, bitmex, bybit, dydx, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx
16:25	1,853	$24.5M	BTCUSDT	binance, bybit, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx
16:26	11	$12,389	1000PEPEUSDT	binance, bybit, gateio, okx

Venue breakdown

Venue	Liquidated	Events
binance	$54.3M	777
okx	$20.1M	1,421
bybit	$10.3M	1,057
gateio	$10.0M	820
hyperliquid	$3.7M	753
bitmex	$195,832	4
kraken_fut	$153,144	57
dydx	$3,105	9
bitfinex	$79	1

Independent re-read of our own captured tape (verify: PASS). Cross-venue capture is the product moat.

What the map showed BEFORE the cascade

Levels snapshot published at 2026-08-28T16:18:07Z: 2 minutes before the cascade start. anchor price $77,582.40. Only snapshots strictly before the cascade start are eligible; nothing published after the start can appear here.

#	Leverage	Side	Predicted level	Status	Reached at (UTC)
#1	None×	short	$77,989.7076	REACHED	16:20:21
#2	None×	short	$77,640.5868	REACHED	16:20:21
#3	50×	long	$77,427.2352	REACHED	16:20:21
#4	75×	long	$77,427.2352	REACHED	16:20:21
#5	100×	long	$77,427.2352	REACHED	16:20:21
#6	25×	long	$77,116.9056	REACHED	16:22:02
#7	None×	long	$76,825.9716	REACHED	16:23:08
#8	None×	long	$76,476.8508	REACHED	16:24:24
-	None×	long	$76,127.7300	MISSED	-
-	None×	long	$75,545.8620	MISSED	-
-	None×	short	$78,571.5756	MISSED	-
-	None×	short	$78,338.8284	MISSED	-
-	10×	long	$72,151.6320	MISSED	-
-	25×	short	$82,702.8384	MISSED	-
-	None×	long	$73,800.2580	MISSED	-
-	None×	long	$74,498.4996	MISSED	-
-	10×	short	$87,357.7824	MISSED	-
-	50×	long	$78,668.5536	MISSED	-
-	50×	short	$80,840.8608	MISSED	-
-	None×	short	$79,153.4436	MISSED	-
-	None×	short	$79,618.9380	MISSED	-
-	5×	long	$64,083.0624	MISSED	-
-	5×	short	$95,426.3520	MISSED	-
-	3×	long	$53,531.8560	MISSED	-
-	75×	long	$78,978.8832	MISSED	-
-	75×	short	$80,530.5312	MISSED	-
-	3×	short	$105,977.5584	MISSED	-
-	100×	long	$79,289.2128	MISSED	-
-	100×	short	$80,220.2016	MISSED	-

Event-level record for this one cascade: 8 of 29 published levels were reached. reach rate 27.6% · n=29 levels · Wilson 95% lower bound 14.7%. A level counts as REACHED when the cascade's traded price range ($76,599.70-$77,863.40) came within 0.5% of the published level. Misses are shown at equal weight, never hidden. One event is not a track record; the standing measured record follows below.

The measured record, as it stood before this cascade

As of 2026-08-28 16:15 UTC (the last calibration record before this cascade, n=15 day-clusters), the model's walk-forward calibration was below its own validation gate (the Wilson 95% lower bound on out-of-sample precision@N did not clear the published target). Per our honesty rules we do not quote the figure itself while it sits below gate, so only the status. The level-by-level record above stands on its own as the descriptive evidence for this event.

The map these autopsies came from is live

Every autopsy here is built from liquidation-level snapshots the product published in real time, before the event. The delayed map and the full measured track record are open without an account, every figure with its sample size and a Wilson 95% bound. Real time is Pro: $79/mo, Founding 50 from $39/mo. The free account needs no card.

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