Cascade Autopsy: BTC, 2026-08-25

2026-08-25T21:05:52Z → 21:08:39Z UTC · generated 2026-08-25T21:09:02Z · artifact 2026-08-25T2105-BTC

What happened

Total liquidated

$51.1M

Raw tape events

2,550

Duration

2m 47s

Venues

binance, bitfinex, bitmex, bybit, dydx, gateio, kraken_fut, okx

Dominant symbol

BTCUSDT

Direction

mixed: 1346 long / 1204 short liquidations

Symbol	Liquidated	Events	Share
BTCUSDT	$20.7M	333	40.5%
ETHUSDT	$15.7M	372	30.8%
XRPUSDT	$5.4M	391	10.5%
SOLUSDT	$1.9M	156	3.8%
ZECUSDT	$1.7M	175	3.3%

Timeline (UTC, minute by minute)

Minute	Events	Liquidated	Top symbol	Venues
21:05	1	$3,429	ETHUSDT	binance
21:06	6	$191,268	ZECUSDT	binance, bybit, okx
21:07	1,357	$32.4M	BTCUSDT	binance, bitmex, bybit, gateio, kraken_fut, okx
21:08	1,186	$18.5M	BTCUSDT	binance, bitfinex, bitmex, bybit, dydx, gateio, kraken_fut, okx

Venue breakdown

Venue	Liquidated	Events
binance	$39.3M	594
bybit	$7.5M	1,188
gateio	$2.4M	392
okx	$1.4M	304
kraken_fut	$359,177	63
bitmex	$49,639	2
dydx	$2,880	6
bitfinex	$141	1

Independent re-read of our own captured tape (verify: PASS). Cross-venue capture is the product moat.

What the map showed BEFORE the cascade

Levels snapshot published at 2026-08-25T21:03:08Z: 2 minutes before the cascade start. anchor price $78,190.90. Only snapshots strictly before the cascade start are eligible; nothing published after the start can appear here.

#	Leverage	Side	Predicted level	Status	Reached at (UTC)
#1	None×	long	$78,014.9705	REACHED	21:07:20
#2	None×	short	$78,484.1159	REACHED	21:07:20
#3	None×	long	$77,780.3978	REACHED	21:07:20
#4	50×	long	$78,347.2818	REACHED	21:07:20
#5	50×	long	$78,034.5182	REACHED	21:07:20
#6	75×	long	$78,034.5182	REACHED	21:07:20
#7	100×	long	$78,034.5182	REACHED	21:07:20
#8	None×	long	$77,545.8251	REACHED	21:07:21
#9	None×	long	$77,311.2524	REACHED	21:07:34
-	None×	short	$79,187.8340	MISSED	-
-	None×	long	$76,959.3933	MISSED	-
-	25×	long	$76,783.4638	MISSED	-
-	10×	long	$71,779.2462	MISSED	-
-	25×	short	$82,100.4450	MISSED	-
-	10×	short	$87,104.6626	MISSED	-
-	50×	short	$80,536.6270	MISSED	-
-	5×	long	$63,960.1562	MISSED	-
-	3×	long	$53,326.1938	MISSED	-
-	5×	short	$94,923.7526	MISSED	-
-	75×	long	$78,660.0454	MISSED	-
-	75×	short	$80,223.8634	MISSED	-
-	3×	short	$105,557.7150	MISSED	-
-	100×	long	$78,972.8090	MISSED	-
-	100×	short	$79,911.0998	MISSED	-
-	None×	long	$76,490.2479	MISSED	-
-	None×	short	$80,126.1248	MISSED	-

Event-level record for this one cascade: 9 of 26 published levels were reached. reach rate 34.6% · n=26 levels · Wilson 95% lower bound 19.4%. A level counts as REACHED when the cascade's traded price range ($77,555.80-$78,159.70) came within 0.5% of the published level. Misses are shown at equal weight, never hidden. One event is not a track record; the standing measured record follows below.

The measured record, as it stood before this cascade

As of 2026-08-25 20:18 UTC (the last calibration record before this cascade, n=15 day-clusters), the model's walk-forward calibration was below its own validation gate (the Wilson 95% lower bound on out-of-sample precision@N did not clear the published target). Per our honesty rules we do not quote the figure itself while it sits below gate, so only the status. The level-by-level record above stands on its own as the descriptive evidence for this event.

The map these autopsies came from is live

Every autopsy here is built from liquidation-level snapshots the product published in real time, before the event. The delayed map and the full measured track record are open without an account, every figure with its sample size and a Wilson 95% bound. Real time is Pro: $79/mo, Founding 50 from $39/mo. The free account needs no card.

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