Cascade Autopsy: ETH, 2026-08-22

2026-08-22T05:08:50Z → 05:18:51Z UTC · generated 2026-08-22T05:39:02Z · artifact 2026-08-22T0508-ETH

What happened

Total liquidated

$353.4M

Raw tape events

26,271

Duration

10m 1s

Venues

binance, bitfinex, bitmex, bybit, dydx, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx

Dominant symbol

ETHUSDT

Direction

predominantly LONG liquidations (70% of events), price fell

Symbol	Liquidated	Events	Share
ETHUSDT	$91.0M	3,060	25.7%
BTCUSDT	$57.1M	2,604	16.2%
XRPUSDT	$43.3M	2,410	12.3%
SOLUSDT	$34.3M	2,379	9.7%
DOGEUSDT	$22.3M	2,158	6.3%

Timeline (UTC, minute by minute)

Minute	Events	Liquidated	Top symbol	Venues
05:07	58	$666,874	1000PEPEUSDT	binance, bitfinex, bitmex, bybit, gateio, hyperliquid, okx
05:08	1,415	$14.1M	SOLUSDT	binance, bitmex, bybit, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx
05:09	3,860	$58.9M	ETHUSDT	binance, bitmex, bybit, dydx, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx
05:10	11,222	$159.2M	ETHUSDT	binance, bitfinex, bitmex, bybit, dydx, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx
05:11	6,054	$79.9M	ETHUSDT	binance, bitfinex, bitmex, bybit, dydx, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx
05:12	1,112	$8.2M	BTCUSDT	binance, bitfinex, bitmex, bybit, dydx, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx
05:13	535	$10.6M	XRPUSDT	binance, bitmex, bybit, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx
05:14	266	$2.1M	XRPUSDT	binance, bybit, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx
05:15	305	$2.5M	XRPUSDT	binance, bybit, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx
05:16	2,093	$25.2M	ETHUSDT	binance, bitmex, bybit, dydx, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx
05:17	337	$2.7M	ETHUSDT	binance, bybit, gateio, okx
05:18	99	$310,102	SOLUSDT	binance, bybit, gateio, hyperliquid, okx
05:19	61	$411,736	ZECUSDT	binance, bitmex, bybit, gateio, okx

Venue breakdown

Venue	Liquidated	Events
binance	$155.6M	4,447
okx	$81.2M	9,756
bybit	$63.8M	5,892
gateio	$34.1M	3,048
hyperliquid	$13.9M	2,298
kraken_fut	$4.1M	619
dydx	$606,657	192
bitmex	$98,805	15
bitfinex	$50,324	4

Independent re-read of our own captured tape (verify: PASS). Cross-venue capture is the product moat.

What the map showed BEFORE the cascade

Levels snapshot published at 2026-08-22T05:08:10Z: 0 minutes before the cascade start. anchor price $2,505.86. Only snapshots strictly before the cascade start are eligible; nothing published after the start can appear here.

#	Leverage	Side	Predicted level	Status	Reached at (UTC)
#1	50×	short	$2,510.8717	REACHED	05:08:00
#2	75×	short	$2,510.8717	REACHED	05:08:00
#3	100×	short	$2,510.8717	REACHED	05:08:00
#4	50×	short	$2,470.7780	REACHED	05:09:13
#5	75×	short	$2,460.7545	REACHED	05:09:26
#6	100×	short	$2,450.7311	REACHED	05:09:45
#7	100×	long	$2,420.6608	REACHED	05:10:25
#8	75×	long	$2,410.6373	REACHED	05:10:36
#9	50×	long	$2,400.6139	REACHED	05:10:50
-	25×	short	$2,520.8952	MISSED	-
-	10×	short	$2,671.2468	MISSED	-
-	25×	long	$2,350.4967	MISSED	-
-	10×	long	$2,200.1451	MISSED	-
-	5×	short	$2,911.8093	MISSED	-
-	5×	long	$1,959.5825	MISSED	-
-	3×	long	$1,638.8324	MISSED	-
-	3×	short	$3,232.5594	MISSED	-

Event-level record for this one cascade: 9 of 17 published levels were reached. reach rate 52.9% · n=17 levels · Wilson 95% lower bound 31.0%. A level counts as REACHED when the cascade's traded price range ($2,379.83-$2,507.45) came within 0.5% of the published level. Misses are shown at equal weight, never hidden. One event is not a track record; the standing measured record follows below.

The measured record, as it stood before this cascade

As of 2026-08-22 04:26 UTC (the last calibration record before this cascade, n=19 day-clusters), the model's walk-forward calibration was below its own validation gate (the Wilson 95% lower bound on out-of-sample precision@N did not clear the published target). Per our honesty rules we do not quote the figure itself while it sits below gate, so only the status. The level-by-level record above stands on its own as the descriptive evidence for this event.

The map these autopsies came from is live

Every autopsy here is built from liquidation-level snapshots the product published in real time, before the event. The delayed map and the full measured track record are open without an account, every figure with its sample size and a Wilson 95% bound. Real time is Pro: $79/mo, Founding 50 from $39/mo. The free account needs no card.

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