Cascade Autopsy: ETH, 2026-08-21

2026-08-21T21:23:31Z → 21:33:34Z UTC · generated 2026-08-21T21:39:01Z · artifact 2026-08-21T2123-ETH

What happened

Total liquidated

$76.1M

Raw tape events

4,262

Duration

10m 3s

Venues

binance, bitfinex, bitmex, bybit, dydx, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx

Dominant symbol

ETHUSDT

Direction

predominantly SHORT liquidations (78% of events), price rose

Symbol	Liquidated	Events	Share
ETHUSDT	$38.6M	1,887	50.7%
BTCUSDT	$31.1M	1,188	40.8%
SOLUSDT	$1.7M	163	2.2%
ZECUSDT	$1.2M	170	1.6%
XAUUSDT	$624,313	25	0.8%

Timeline (UTC, minute by minute)

Minute	Events	Liquidated	Top symbol	Venues
21:22	31	$229,296	LINKUSDT	binance, bybit, okx
21:23	960	$14.7M	ETHUSDT	binance, bitmex, bybit, dydx, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx
21:24	927	$26.3M	BTCUSDT	binance, bitfinex, bitmex, bybit, dydx, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx
21:25	69	$798,789	ETHUSDT	binance, bybit, gateio, hyperliquid, okx
21:26	29	$98,651	BTCUSDT	binance, gateio, hyperliquid, okx
21:27	399	$4.8M	BTCUSDT	binance, bitmex, bybit, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx
21:28	438	$6.6M	ETHUSDT	binance, bitfinex, bybit, gateio, hyperliquid, okx
21:29	35	$86,833	ZECUSDT	binance, bybit, gateio, okx
21:30	185	$954,535	BTCUSDT	binance, bybit, gateio, hyperliquid, okx
21:31	17	$23,761	LINKUSDT	binance, bybit, gateio, okx
21:32	175	$2.1M	BTCUSDT	binance, bitfinex, bybit, gateio, hyperliquid, okx
21:33	1,123	$20.4M	ETHUSDT	binance, bitmex, bybit, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx
21:34	40	$73,756	SOLUSDT	binance, bitfinex, bybit, gateio, okx

Venue breakdown

Venue	Liquidated	Events
binance	$27.9M	623
hyperliquid	$15.6M	585
okx	$11.8M	1,213
gateio	$10.4M	865
bybit	$6.1M	900
bitmex	$4.1M	5
bitfinex	$110,674	13
dydx	$91,978	48
kraken_fut	$8,919	10

Independent re-read of our own captured tape (verify: PASS). Cross-venue capture is the product moat.

What the map showed BEFORE the cascade

Levels snapshot published at 2026-08-21T21:23:14Z: 0 minutes before the cascade start. anchor price $2,455.81. Only snapshots strictly before the cascade start are eligible; nothing published after the start can appear here.

#	Leverage	Side	Predicted level	Status	Reached at (UTC)
#1	25×	short	$2,460.7216	REACHED	21:22:51
#2	75×	short	$2,460.7216	REACHED	21:22:51
#3	50×	short	$2,460.7216	REACHED	21:22:51
#4	100×	short	$2,460.7216	REACHED	21:22:51
-	75×	short	$2,401.7822	MISSED	-
-	50×	short	$2,411.6054	MISSED	-
-	100×	short	$2,391.9589	MISSED	-
-	25×	long	$2,293.7265	MISSED	-
-	75×	long	$2,362.4892	MISSED	-
-	50×	long	$2,342.8427	MISSED	-
-	100×	long	$2,362.4892	MISSED	-
-	10×	short	$2,608.0702	MISSED	-
-	10×	long	$2,156.2012	MISSED	-

Event-level record for this one cascade: 4 of 13 published levels were reached. reach rate 30.8% · n=13 levels · Wilson 95% lower bound 12.7%. A level counts as REACHED when the cascade's traded price range ($2,456.08-$2,505.69) came within 0.5% of the published level. Misses are shown at equal weight, never hidden. One event is not a track record; the standing measured record follows below.

The measured record, as it stood before this cascade

As of 2026-08-21 20:19 UTC (the last calibration record before this cascade, n=18 day-clusters), the model's walk-forward calibration was below its own validation gate (the Wilson 95% lower bound on out-of-sample precision@N did not clear the published target). Per our honesty rules we do not quote the figure itself while it sits below gate, so only the status. The level-by-level record above stands on its own as the descriptive evidence for this event.

The map these autopsies came from is live

Every autopsy here is built from liquidation-level snapshots the product published in real time, before the event. The delayed map and the full measured track record are open without an account, every figure with its sample size and a Wilson 95% bound. Real time is Pro: $79/mo, Founding 50 from $39/mo. The free account needs no card.

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