Cascade Autopsy: BTC, 2026-08-21

2026-08-21T08:33:27Z → 09:08:46Z UTC · generated 2026-08-21T09:09:01Z · artifact 2026-08-21T0833-BTC

What happened

Total liquidated

$478.2M

Raw tape events

17,805

Duration

35m 19s

Venues

binance, bitfinex, bitmex, bybit, dydx, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx

Dominant symbol

BTCUSDT

Direction

predominantly SHORT liquidations (77% of events), price rose

Symbol	Liquidated	Events	Share
BTCUSDT	$349.3M	6,927	73.0%
ETHUSDT	$96.8M	4,261	20.2%
SOLUSDT	$9.7M	1,151	2.0%
XRPUSDT	$6.4M	819	1.3%
HYPEUSDT	$1.6M	403	0.3%

Timeline (UTC, minute by minute)

Minute	Events	Liquidated	Top symbol	Venues
08:32	91	$2.8M	ETHUSDT	binance, bitfinex, bybit, gateio, hyperliquid, okx
08:33	336	$3.5M	BTCUSDT	binance, bitfinex, bybit, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx
08:34	238	$5.5M	ETHUSDT	binance, bybit, gateio, hyperliquid, okx
08:35	385	$3.9M	BTCUSDT	binance, bitfinex, bybit, dydx, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx
08:36	348	$9.9M	ETHUSDT	binance, bitmex, bybit, gateio, hyperliquid, okx
08:37	80	$281,387	SOLUSDT	binance, bybit, gateio, hyperliquid, okx
08:38	613	$11.8M	ETHUSDT	binance, bitfinex, bybit, dydx, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx
08:39	34	$181,455	ETHUSDT	binance, bybit, gateio, hyperliquid, okx
08:40	46	$54,213	ETHUSDT	binance, bitfinex, bybit, gateio, hyperliquid, okx
08:41	631	$10.9M	BTCUSDT	binance, bitfinex, bybit, gateio, hyperliquid, okx
08:42	378	$6.9M	BTCUSDT	binance, bybit, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx
08:43	31	$173,866	ETHUSDT	binance, bybit, gateio, hyperliquid, okx
08:44	62	$119,105	ENAUSDT	binance, bitfinex, bybit, gateio, hyperliquid, okx
08:45	426	$5.0M	ETHUSDT	binance, bitfinex, bitmex, bybit, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx
08:46	880	$26.0M	ETHUSDT	binance, bitfinex, bybit, dydx, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx
08:47	1,258	$15.2M	BTCUSDT	binance, bitfinex, bybit, dydx, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx
08:48	208	$1.7M	BTCUSDT	binance, bybit, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx
08:49	116	$1.1M	BTCUSDT	binance, bybit, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx
08:50	817	$12.1M	BTCUSDT	binance, bitmex, bybit, dydx, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx
08:51	1,097	$18.0M	ETHUSDT	binance, bitfinex, bybit, dydx, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx
08:52	561	$7.8M	BTCUSDT	binance, bitmex, bybit, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx
08:53	245	$3.7M	BTCUSDT	binance, bybit, gateio, hyperliquid, okx
08:54	627	$6.7M	BTCUSDT	binance, bybit, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx
08:55	245	$2.9M	BTCUSDT	binance, bybit, gateio, hyperliquid, okx
08:56	357	$5.8M	BTCUSDT	binance, bitfinex, bybit, dydx, gateio, hyperliquid, okx
08:57	1,214	$199.2M	BTCUSDT	binance, bitfinex, bitmex, bybit, dydx, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx
08:58	1,469	$33.2M	BTCUSDT	binance, bitmex, bybit, dydx, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx
08:59	910	$10.5M	BTCUSDT	binance, bybit, dydx, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx
09:00	658	$10.0M	BTCUSDT	binance, bitfinex, bitmex, bybit, dydx, gateio, kraken_fut, okx
09:01	542	$10.7M	BTCUSDT	binance, bybit, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx
09:02	825	$8.9M	ETHUSDT	binance, bybit, dydx, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx
09:03	1,118	$19.8M	BTCUSDT	binance, bitmex, bybit, dydx, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx
09:04	54	$738,306	BTCUSDT	binance, bybit, gateio, okx
09:05	168	$1.9M	BTCUSDT	binance, bybit, gateio, okx
09:06	435	$6.5M	BTCUSDT	binance, bitmex, bybit, gateio, kraken_fut, okx
09:07	530	$18.4M	BTCUSDT	binance, bitmex, bybit, dydx, gateio, kraken_fut, okx
09:08	32	$183,203	ETHUSDT	binance, bybit, gateio, okx

Venue breakdown

Venue	Liquidated	Events
bitfinex	$176.2M	33
binance	$133.5M	2,795
okx	$61.3M	5,182
gateio	$43.3M	3,348
bybit	$38.7M	4,205
hyperliquid	$22.1M	2,010
bitmex	$2.4M	14
kraken_fut	$631,483	114
dydx	$92,286	104

Independent re-read of our own captured tape (verify: PASS). Cross-venue capture is the product moat.

What the map showed BEFORE the cascade

Levels snapshot published at 2026-08-21T08:33:05Z: 0 minutes before the cascade start. anchor price $77,460.70. Only snapshots strictly before the cascade start are eligible; nothing published after the start can appear here.

#	Leverage	Side	Predicted level	Status	Reached at (UTC)
#1	25×	short	$77,615.6214	REACHED	08:32:27
#2	50×	short	$77,615.6214	REACHED	08:32:27
#3	75×	short	$77,615.6214	REACHED	08:32:27
#4	100×	short	$77,615.6214	REACHED	08:32:27
#5	25×	short	$75,756.5646	REACHED	08:57:08
-	25×	long	$70,799.0798	MISSED	-
-	50×	short	$74,517.1934	MISSED	-
-	75×	short	$73,897.5078	MISSED	-
-	50×	long	$72,348.2938	MISSED	-
-	75×	long	$72,658.1366	MISSED	-
-	100×	short	$73,587.6650	MISSED	-
-	10×	short	$80,404.2066	MISSED	-
-	100×	long	$72,967.9794	MISSED	-
-	10×	long	$66,461.2806	MISSED	-
-	5×	short	$87,530.5910	MISSED	-
-	5×	long	$59,025.0534	MISSED	-

Event-level record for this one cascade: 5 of 16 published levels were reached. reach rate 31.2% · n=16 levels · Wilson 95% lower bound 14.2%. A level counts as REACHED when the cascade's traded price range ($76,000.00-$79,784.10) came within 0.5% of the published level. Misses are shown at equal weight, never hidden. One event is not a track record; the standing measured record follows below.

The measured record, as it stood before this cascade

As of 2026-08-21 07:39 UTC (the last calibration record before this cascade, n=17 day-clusters), the model's walk-forward calibration was below its own validation gate (the Wilson 95% lower bound on out-of-sample precision@N did not clear the published target). Per our honesty rules we do not quote the figure itself while it sits below gate, so only the status. The level-by-level record above stands on its own as the descriptive evidence for this event.

The map these autopsies came from is live

Every autopsy here is built from liquidation-level snapshots the product published in real time, before the event. The delayed map and the full measured track record are open without an account, every figure with its sample size and a Wilson 95% bound. Real time is Pro: $79/mo, Founding 50 from $39/mo. The free account needs no card.

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