Cascade Autopsy: BTC, 2026-08-21

2026-08-21T07:12:15Z → 07:17:15Z UTC · generated 2026-08-21T07:39:01Z · artifact 2026-08-21T0712-BTC

What happened

Total liquidated

$274.2M

Raw tape events

4,373

Duration

5m 0s

Venues

binance, bitfinex, bitmex, bybit, dydx, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx

Dominant symbol

BTCUSDT

Direction

predominantly SHORT liquidations (69% of events), price rose

Symbol	Liquidated	Events	Share
BTCUSDT	$242.2M	1,888	88.3%
ETHUSDT	$21.0M	1,116	7.7%
SNDKUSDT	$3.6M	53	1.3%
SOLUSDT	$2.7M	147	1.0%
ZECUSDT	$924,442	96	0.3%

Timeline (UTC, minute by minute)

Minute	Events	Liquidated	Top symbol	Venues
07:11	231	$4.4M	BTCUSDT	binance, bybit, dydx, gateio, hyperliquid, okx
07:12	147	$1.1M	ETHUSDT	binance, bybit, dydx, gateio, hyperliquid, okx
07:13	16	$20,027	ENAUSDT	binance, bybit, okx
07:14	222	$3.4M	ETHUSDT	binance, bybit, gateio, hyperliquid, okx
07:15	1,837	$35.4M	BTCUSDT	binance, bitfinex, bitmex, bybit, dydx, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx
07:16	2,118	$233.9M	BTCUSDT	binance, bitfinex, bitmex, bybit, dydx, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx
07:17	236	$1.9M	ETHUSDT	binance, bitmex, bybit, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx
07:18	5	$29,102	LINKUSDT	binance, gateio, hyperliquid

Venue breakdown

Venue	Liquidated	Events
bitfinex	$173.5M	5
binance	$51.4M	413
hyperliquid	$18.3M	848
bybit	$14.0M	1,306
okx	$9.5M	886
gateio	$7.2M	799
kraken_fut	$192,807	42
bitmex	$122,001	4
dydx	$63,235	70

Independent re-read of our own captured tape (verify: PASS). Cross-venue capture is the product moat.

What the map showed BEFORE the cascade

Levels snapshot published at 2026-08-21T07:08:04Z: 4 minutes before the cascade start. anchor price $75,803.80. Only snapshots strictly before the cascade start are eligible; nothing published after the start can appear here.

#	Leverage	Side	Predicted level	Status	Reached at (UTC)
#1	25×	short	$75,955.4076	REACHED	07:11:32
#2	50×	short	$75,955.4076	REACHED	07:11:32
#3	75×	short	$75,955.4076	REACHED	07:11:32
#4	100×	short	$75,955.4076	REACHED	07:11:32
#5	25×	short	$75,348.9772	REACHED	-
-	10×	short	$79,897.2052	MISSED	-
-	50×	short	$74,136.1164	MISSED	-
-	25×	long	$70,497.5340	MISSED	-
-	10×	long	$65,949.3060	MISSED	-
-	50×	long	$71,710.3948	MISSED	-
-	5×	short	$87,174.3700	MISSED	-
-	75×	short	$73,529.6860	MISSED	-
-	5×	long	$58,672.1412	MISSED	-
-	3×	long	$48,969.2548	MISSED	-
-	75×	long	$72,316.8252	MISSED	-
-	3×	short	$96,877.2564	MISSED	-
-	100×	short	$73,226.4708	MISSED	-
-	100×	long	$72,620.0404	MISSED	-

Event-level record for this one cascade: 5 of 18 published levels were reached. reach rate 27.8% · n=18 levels · Wilson 95% lower bound 12.5%. A level counts as REACHED when the cascade's traded price range ($74,947.05-$77,135.60) came within 0.5% of the published level. Misses are shown at equal weight, never hidden. One event is not a track record; the standing measured record follows below.

The measured record, as it stood before this cascade

As of 2026-08-21 06:31 UTC (the last calibration record before this cascade, n=17 day-clusters), the model's walk-forward calibration was below its own validation gate (the Wilson 95% lower bound on out-of-sample precision@N did not clear the published target). Per our honesty rules we do not quote the figure itself while it sits below gate, so only the status. The level-by-level record above stands on its own as the descriptive evidence for this event.

The map these autopsies came from is live

Every autopsy here is built from liquidation-level snapshots the product published in real time, before the event. The delayed map and the full measured track record are open without an account, every figure with its sample size and a Wilson 95% bound. Real time is Pro: $79/mo, Founding 50 from $39/mo. The free account needs no card.

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