Cascade Autopsy: BTC, 2026-08-20

2026-08-20T23:16:54Z → 23:26:59Z UTC · generated 2026-08-20T23:39:01Z · artifact 2026-08-20T2316-BTC

What happened

Total liquidated

$68.1M

Raw tape events

1,462

Duration

10m 5s

Venues

binance, bitfinex, bybit, dydx, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx

Dominant symbol

BTCUSDT

Direction

predominantly SHORT liquidations (86% of events), price rose

Symbol	Liquidated	Events	Share
BTCUSDT	$64.5M	856	94.7%
ETHUSDT	$2.2M	251	3.2%
1000PEPEUSDT	$319,386	24	0.5%
SOLUSDT	$293,175	37	0.4%
XAUUSDT	$217,494	7	0.3%

Timeline (UTC, minute by minute)

Minute	Events	Liquidated	Top symbol	Venues
23:15	1	$1,677	BTCUSDT	binance
23:16	18	$72,733	BTCUSDT	binance, bybit, gateio, okx
23:17	3	$325	HYPEUSDT	binance, bybit
23:18	28	$128,251	ETHUSDT	binance, bybit, gateio, okx
23:19	132	$43.2M	BTCUSDT	binance, bybit, gateio, hyperliquid, okx
23:20	19	$249,286	BTCUSDT	binance, bybit, gateio, hyperliquid, okx
23:21	54	$154,059	ENAUSDT	binance, dydx, hyperliquid, okx
23:22	55	$336,143	ETHUSDT	binance, bybit, gateio, hyperliquid, okx
23:23	16	$10,502	ETHUSDT	binance, bybit, gateio, hyperliquid, okx
23:24	18	$28,720	1000PEPEUSDT	binance, bybit, gateio, okx
23:25	554	$16.5M	BTCUSDT	binance, bitfinex, bybit, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx
23:26	580	$7.6M	BTCUSDT	binance, bitfinex, bybit, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx
23:27	14	$67,184	DOGEUSDT	binance, bybit, gateio, hyperliquid, okx

Venue breakdown

Venue	Liquidated	Events
gateio	$51.4M	262
bybit	$7.1M	495
binance	$6.5M	174
okx	$1.7M	285
hyperliquid	$1.2M	216
bitfinex	$106,025	6
kraken_fut	$51,466	23
dydx	$14	1

Independent re-read of our own captured tape (verify: PASS). Cross-venue capture is the product moat.

What the map showed BEFORE the cascade

Levels snapshot published at 2026-08-20T23:13:06Z: 3 minutes before the cascade start. anchor price $72,854.10. Only snapshots strictly before the cascade start are eligible; nothing published after the start can appear here.

#	Leverage	Side	Predicted level	Status	Reached at (UTC)
#1	75×	short	$72,999.8082	REACHED	23:15:56
#2	50×	short	$72,999.8082	REACHED	23:15:56
#3	100×	short	$72,999.8082	REACHED	23:15:56
#4	25×	short	$73,582.6410	REACHED	23:19:14
-	25×	long	$68,628.5622	MISSED	-
-	75×	short	$71,834.1426	MISSED	-
-	50×	short	$72,125.5590	MISSED	-
-	75×	long	$70,668.4770	MISSED	-
-	100×	short	$71,542.7262	MISSED	-
-	50×	long	$70,085.6442	MISSED	-
-	100×	long	$70,959.8934	MISSED	-
-	10×	short	$77,953.8870	MISSED	-
-	10×	long	$64,548.7326	MISSED	-
-	5×	short	$84,947.8806	MISSED	-
-	5×	long	$57,263.3226	MISSED	-

Event-level record for this one cascade: 4 of 15 published levels were reached. reach rate 26.7% · n=15 levels · Wilson 95% lower bound 10.9%. A level counts as REACHED when the cascade's traded price range ($72,877.00-$73,610.00) came within 0.5% of the published level. Misses are shown at equal weight, never hidden. One event is not a track record; the standing measured record follows below.

The measured record, as it stood before this cascade

As of 2026-08-20 22:49 UTC (the last calibration record before this cascade, n=15 day-clusters), the model's walk-forward calibration was below its own validation gate (the Wilson 95% lower bound on out-of-sample precision@N did not clear the published target). Per our honesty rules we do not quote the figure itself while it sits below gate, so only the status. The level-by-level record above stands on its own as the descriptive evidence for this event.

The map these autopsies came from is live

Every autopsy here is built from liquidation-level snapshots the product published in real time, before the event. The delayed map and the full measured track record are open without an account, every figure with its sample size and a Wilson 95% bound. Real time is Pro: $79/mo, Founding 50 from $39/mo. The free account needs no card.

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