Cascade Autopsy: ETH, 2026-08-20

2026-08-20T17:48:18Z → 17:53:17Z UTC · generated 2026-08-20T18:09:02Z · artifact 2026-08-20T1748-ETH

What happened

Total liquidated

$60.6M

Raw tape events

408

Duration

4m 59s

Venues

binance, bitfinex, bybit, dydx, gateio, hyperliquid, okx

Dominant symbol

ETHUSDT

Direction

predominantly SHORT liquidations (67% of events), price rose

Symbol	Liquidated	Events	Share
ETHUSDT	$37.6M	62	62.0%
BTCUSDT	$22.7M	199	37.5%
XRPUSDT	$188,426	25	0.3%
SOLUSDT	$50,089	24	0.1%
ADAUSDT	$26,678	9	0.0%

Timeline (UTC, minute by minute)

Minute	Events	Liquidated	Top symbol	Venues
17:47	4	$24,182	LINKUSDT	binance, bybit, okx
17:48	15	$10,326	UNITREEUSDT	binance, bybit, gateio, okx
17:49	15	$6,691	UNITREEUSDT	binance, bitfinex, bybit, gateio, hyperliquid
17:50	16	$7,901	WLDUSDT	binance, bybit, hyperliquid, okx
17:51	76	$25.2M	ETHUSDT	binance, bybit, gateio, hyperliquid, okx
17:52	257	$35.2M	BTCUSDT	binance, bitfinex, bybit, dydx, gateio, hyperliquid, okx
17:53	32	$182,266	XRPUSDT	binance, bybit, dydx, gateio, okx
17:54	40	$121,591	DOGEUSDT	binance, bybit, gateio, okx

Venue breakdown

Venue	Liquidated	Events
gateio	$57.8M	73
bybit	$1.2M	98
binance	$730,497	109
okx	$490,133	74
hyperliquid	$356,219	43
dydx	$7,297	9
bitfinex	$0	2

Independent re-read of our own captured tape (verify: PASS). Cross-venue capture is the product moat.

What the map showed BEFORE the cascade

Levels snapshot published at 2026-08-20T17:48:08Z: 0 minutes before the cascade start. anchor price $2,344.09. Only snapshots strictly before the cascade start are eligible; nothing published after the start can appear here.

#	Leverage	Side	Predicted level	Status	Reached at (UTC)
#1	25×	short	$2,348.7782	REACHED	17:48:52
#2	75×	short	$2,348.7782	REACHED	17:48:52
#3	50×	short	$2,348.7782	REACHED	17:48:52
#4	100×	short	$2,348.7782	REACHED	17:48:52
-	25×	short	$2,330.0255	MISSED	-
-	75×	short	$2,273.7673	MISSED	-
-	25×	long	$2,180.0037	MISSED	-
-	50×	short	$2,292.5200	MISSED	-
-	75×	long	$2,236.2619	MISSED	-
-	100×	short	$2,264.3909	MISSED	-
-	50×	long	$2,217.5091	MISSED	-
-	100×	long	$2,245.6382	MISSED	-
-	10×	short	$2,470.6709	MISSED	-
-	10×	long	$2,039.3583	MISSED	-

Event-level record for this one cascade: 4 of 14 published levels were reached. reach rate 28.6% · n=14 levels · Wilson 95% lower bound 11.7%. A level counts as REACHED when the cascade's traded price range ($2,342.47-$2,357.81) came within 0.5% of the published level. Misses are shown at equal weight, never hidden. One event is not a track record; the standing measured record follows below.

The measured record, as it stood before this cascade

As of 2026-08-20 17:00 UTC (the last calibration record before this cascade, n=16 day-clusters), the model's walk-forward calibration was below its own validation gate (the Wilson 95% lower bound on out-of-sample precision@N did not clear the published target). Per our honesty rules we do not quote the figure itself while it sits below gate, so only the status. The level-by-level record above stands on its own as the descriptive evidence for this event.

The map these autopsies came from is live

Every autopsy here is built from liquidation-level snapshots the product published in real time, before the event. The delayed map and the full measured track record are open without an account, every figure with its sample size and a Wilson 95% bound. Real time is Pro: $79/mo, Founding 50 from $39/mo. The free account needs no card.

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