Cascade Autopsy: BTC, 2026-08-20

2026-08-20T09:19:10Z → 09:23:58Z UTC · generated 2026-08-20T09:39:01Z · artifact 2026-08-20T0919-BTC

What happened

Total liquidated

$165.8M

Raw tape events

339

Duration

4m 48s

Venues

binance, bitfinex, bybit, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx

Dominant symbol

BTCUSDT

Direction

predominantly SHORT liquidations (65% of events), price rose

Symbol	Liquidated	Events	Share
BTCUSDT	$165.5M	224	99.8%
ETHUSDT	$74,459	19	0.0%
1000PEPEUSDT	$73,661	21	0.0%
DOGEUSDT	$69,952	25	0.0%
XRPUSDT	$20,044	12	0.0%

Timeline (UTC, minute by minute)

Minute	Events	Liquidated	Top symbol	Venues
09:18	29	$423,784	BTCUSDT	binance, bybit, gateio, hyperliquid, okx
09:19	134	$1.7M	BTCUSDT	binance, bybit, gateio, hyperliquid, okx
09:20	4	$578	HYPEUSDT	binance, gateio
09:21	157	$163.9M	BTCUSDT	binance, bitfinex, bybit, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx
09:22	18	$40,152	XRPUSDT	binance, bitfinex, bybit, gateio, okx
09:23	26	$100,587	DOGEUSDT	binance, bitfinex, bybit, gateio, okx
09:24	57	$325,583	ETHUSDT	binance, bitfinex, bybit, gateio, okx

Venue breakdown

Venue	Liquidated	Events
bitfinex	$162.9M	16
binance	$879,848	49
bybit	$732,344	93
okx	$716,782	78
hyperliquid	$423,988	51
gateio	$170,663	51
kraken_fut	$187	1

Independent re-read of our own captured tape (verify: PASS). Cross-venue capture is the product moat.

What the map showed BEFORE the cascade

Levels snapshot published at 2026-08-20T09:18:04Z: 1 minutes before the cascade start. anchor price $71,911.20. Only snapshots strictly before the cascade start are eligible; nothing published after the start can appear here.

#	Leverage	Side	Predicted level	Status	Reached at (UTC)
#1	25×	short	$72,055.0224	REACHED	09:18:12
#2	75×	short	$72,055.0224	REACHED	09:18:12
#3	100×	short	$72,055.0224	REACHED	09:18:12
#4	50×	short	$72,055.0224	REACHED	09:18:12
#5	25×	short	$70,616.7984	REACHED	-
-	25×	long	$65,726.8368	MISSED	-
-	75×	short	$68,890.9296	MISSED	-
-	75×	long	$67,740.3504	MISSED	-
-	100×	short	$68,603.2848	MISSED	-
-	100×	long	$67,740.3504	MISSED	-
-	50×	short	$69,178.5744	MISSED	-
-	50×	long	$67,165.0608	MISSED	-
-	10×	short	$74,643.8256	MISSED	-
-	10×	long	$61,699.8096	MISSED	-
-	5×	short	$81,547.3008	MISSED	-
-	5×	long	$54,796.3344	MISSED	-

Event-level record for this one cascade: 5 of 16 published levels were reached. reach rate 31.2% · n=16 levels · Wilson 95% lower bound 14.2%. A level counts as REACHED when the cascade's traded price range ($69,589.02-$72,267.90) came within 0.5% of the published level. Misses are shown at equal weight, never hidden. One event is not a track record; the standing measured record follows below.

The measured record, as it stood before this cascade

As of 2026-08-20 09:05 UTC (the last calibration record before this cascade, n=18 day-clusters), the model's walk-forward calibration was below its own validation gate (the Wilson 95% lower bound on out-of-sample precision@N did not clear the published target). Per our honesty rules we do not quote the figure itself while it sits below gate, so only the status. The level-by-level record above stands on its own as the descriptive evidence for this event.

The map these autopsies came from is live

Every autopsy here is built from liquidation-level snapshots the product published in real time, before the event. The delayed map and the full measured track record are open without an account, every figure with its sample size and a Wilson 95% bound. Real time is Pro: $79/mo, Founding 50 from $39/mo. The free account needs no card.

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