Cascade Autopsy: ETH, 2026-08-19

2026-08-19T21:01:42Z → 21:08:50Z UTC · generated 2026-08-19T21:09:01Z · artifact 2026-08-19T2101-ETH

What happened

Total liquidated

$219.9M

Raw tape events

7,088

Duration

7m 8s

Venues

binance, bitfinex, bitmex, bybit, dydx, gateio, kraken_fut, okx

Dominant symbol

ETHUSDT

Direction

mixed: 1523 long / 2186 short liquidations

Symbol	Liquidated	Events	Share
ETHUSDT	$115.6M	2,097	52.6%
BTCUSDT	$61.1M	1,268	27.8%
SOLUSDT	$19.5M	1,303	8.8%
XAUUSDT	$6.3M	73	2.9%
ZECUSDT	$6.2M	385	2.8%

Timeline (UTC, minute by minute)

Minute	Events	Liquidated	Top symbol	Venues
21:00	7	$19,814	BTCUSDT	binance, bybit, gateio, okx
21:01	53	$139,113	ETHUSDT	binance, bybit, dydx, gateio, okx
21:02	62	$385,422	LINKUSDT	binance, bybit, gateio, okx
21:03	12	$37,871	1000PEPEUSDT	binance, bybit, gateio
21:04	2,059	$37.6M	ETHUSDT	binance, bitmex, bybit, dydx, gateio, kraken_fut, okx
21:05	121	$1.2M	SOLUSDT	binance, bitfinex, bitmex, bybit, gateio, okx
21:06	1,462	$45.0M	ETHUSDT	binance, bitfinex, bybit, dydx, gateio, kraken_fut, okx
21:07	3,267	$134.3M	ETHUSDT	binance, bitfinex, bitmex, bybit, dydx, gateio, kraken_fut, okx
21:08	135	$1.9M	ETHUSDT	binance, bitfinex, bybit, dydx, gateio, okx

Venue breakdown

Venue	Liquidated	Events
binance	$145.6M	1,096
bybit	$34.3M	2,891
gateio	$23.3M	1,344
okx	$10.9M	1,221
kraken_fut	$3.2M	315
dydx	$2.3M	191
bitfinex	$230,293	24
bitmex	$75,035	6

Independent re-read of our own captured tape (verify: PASS). Cross-venue capture is the product moat.

What the map showed BEFORE the cascade

Levels snapshot published at 2026-08-19T20:58:10Z: 3 minutes before the cascade start. anchor price $2,208.46. Only snapshots strictly before the cascade start are eligible; nothing published after the start can appear here.

#	Leverage	Side	Predicted level	Status	Reached at (UTC)
#1	75×	short	$2,212.8769	REACHED	21:00:57
#2	100×	short	$2,212.8769	REACHED	21:00:57
#3	25×	short	$2,212.8769	REACHED	21:00:57
#4	50×	short	$2,212.8769	REACHED	21:00:57
#5	10×	short	$2,212.8769	REACHED	21:00:57
-	75×	short	$1,974.3632	MISSED	-
-	100×	short	$1,974.3632	MISSED	-
-	75×	long	$1,947.8617	MISSED	-
-	50×	short	$1,992.0309	MISSED	-
-	100×	long	$1,947.8617	MISSED	-
-	25×	short	$2,027.3663	MISSED	-
-	50×	long	$1,930.1940	MISSED	-
-	25×	long	$1,894.8587	MISSED	-
-	10×	short	$2,151.0400	MISSED	-
-	10×	long	$1,771.1849	MISSED	-

Event-level record for this one cascade: 5 of 15 published levels were reached. reach rate 33.3% · n=15 levels · Wilson 95% lower bound 15.2%. A level counts as REACHED when the cascade's traded price range ($2,216.53-$2,341.41) came within 0.5% of the published level. Misses are shown at equal weight, never hidden. One event is not a track record; the standing measured record follows below.

The measured record, as it stood before this cascade

As of 2026-08-19 20:51 UTC (the last calibration record before this cascade, n=17 day-clusters), the model's walk-forward calibration was below its own validation gate (the Wilson 95% lower bound on out-of-sample precision@N did not clear the published target). Per our honesty rules we do not quote the figure itself while it sits below gate, so only the status. The level-by-level record above stands on its own as the descriptive evidence for this event.

The map these autopsies came from is live

Every autopsy here is built from liquidation-level snapshots the product published in real time, before the event. The delayed map and the full measured track record are open without an account, every figure with its sample size and a Wilson 95% bound. Real time is Pro: $79/mo, Founding 50 from $39/mo. The free account needs no card.

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