Cascade Autopsy: ETH, 2026-08-19

2026-08-19T20:46:37Z → 20:51:37Z UTC · generated 2026-08-19T21:09:01Z · artifact 2026-08-19T2046-ETH

What happened

Total liquidated

$369.8M

Raw tape events

9,577

Duration

5m 0s

Venues

binance, bitfinex, bitmex, bybit, dydx, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx

Dominant symbol

ETHUSDT

Direction

mixed: 3588 long / 5989 short liquidations

Symbol	Liquidated	Events	Share
ETHUSDT	$224.3M	3,619	60.7%
BTCUSDT	$98.8M	2,371	26.7%
SOLUSDT	$26.2M	1,201	7.1%
HYPEUSDT	$4.6M	146	1.3%
ZECUSDT	$3.7M	353	1.0%

Timeline (UTC, minute by minute)

Minute	Events	Liquidated	Top symbol	Venues
20:45	4	$3,276	DOGEUSDT	bybit, okx
20:46	18	$23,081	XRPUSDT	binance, bybit, gateio, okx
20:47	1	$403	WLDUSDT	binance
20:48	51	$956,893	ETHUSDT	binance, bitfinex, bybit, gateio, hyperliquid, okx
20:49	41	$325,848	ETHUSDT	binance, bybit, gateio, hyperliquid, okx
20:50	4,139	$103.1M	ETHUSDT	binance, bitmex, bybit, dydx, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx
20:51	5,407	$266.5M	ETHUSDT	binance, bitfinex, bitmex, bybit, dydx, gateio, hyperliquid, kraken_fut, okx
20:52	125	$2.5M	ETHUSDT	binance, bitfinex, bitmex, bybit, gateio, hyperliquid, okx

Venue breakdown

Venue	Liquidated	Events
binance	$153.5M	746
hyperliquid	$86.2M	2,351
bybit	$60.9M	3,331
gateio	$38.4M	1,042
okx	$28.8M	1,703
dydx	$1.3M	220
kraken_fut	$615,857	176
bitmex	$43,413	3
bitfinex	$5,567	5

Independent re-read of our own captured tape (verify: PASS). Cross-venue capture is the product moat.

What the map showed BEFORE the cascade

Levels snapshot published at 2026-08-19T20:43:06Z: 3 minutes before the cascade start. anchor price $2,122.48. Only snapshots strictly before the cascade start are eligible; nothing published after the start can appear here.

#	Leverage	Side	Predicted level	Status	Reached at (UTC)
#1	75×	short	$2,126.7250	REACHED	20:46:37
#2	100×	short	$2,126.7250	REACHED	20:46:37
#3	50×	short	$2,126.7250	REACHED	20:46:37
#4	25×	short	$2,126.7250	REACHED	20:46:37
#5	10×	short	$2,143.7048	REACHED	20:46:37
-	75×	short	$1,973.9064	MISSED	-
-	100×	short	$1,965.4165	MISSED	-
-	75×	long	$1,939.9467	MISSED	-
-	50×	short	$1,990.8862	MISSED	-
-	100×	long	$1,948.4366	MISSED	-
-	25×	short	$2,024.8459	MISSED	-
-	50×	long	$1,931.4568	MISSED	-
-	25×	long	$1,889.0072	MISSED	-
-	10×	long	$1,770.1483	MISSED	-

Event-level record for this one cascade: 5 of 14 published levels were reached. reach rate 35.7% · n=14 levels · Wilson 95% lower bound 16.3%. A level counts as REACHED when the cascade's traded price range ($2,124.68-$2,283.00) came within 0.5% of the published level. Misses are shown at equal weight, never hidden. One event is not a track record; the standing measured record follows below.

The measured record, as it stood before this cascade

As of 2026-08-19 19:44 UTC (the last calibration record before this cascade, n=15 day-clusters), the model's walk-forward calibration was below its own validation gate (the Wilson 95% lower bound on out-of-sample precision@N did not clear the published target). Per our honesty rules we do not quote the figure itself while it sits below gate, so only the status. The level-by-level record above stands on its own as the descriptive evidence for this event.

The map these autopsies came from is live

Every autopsy here is built from liquidation-level snapshots the product published in real time, before the event. The delayed map and the full measured track record are open without an account, every figure with its sample size and a Wilson 95% bound. Real time is Pro: $79/mo, Founding 50 from $39/mo. The free account needs no card.

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